20230912-兴证期货-PX周报_成本支撑仍存_PX高位震荡运行_11页_2mb

PX Market Analysis Summary

• PX Prices: As of 9/11/2023, PX FOB Korea at $108,733/ton (up +11% w/w), CFR China at $111,033/ton (up +11% w/w), driven by rising international oil prices due to OPEC+ supply cuts.
• Oil Factors: OPEC+ extends cuts, including Saudi Arabia's 1 million bbl/day reduction to Dec 2023, prompting oil to reach yearly highs and supporting PX cost.
• Supply: PX weekly production hits new high at 6,813 kt (up +0.8% w/w), capacity utilization 81.23% (up +0.9% w/w), with some plants reducing load, while overall supply remains tight.
• Demand: PTA and polyester production stable at high levels, supporting demand; PTA yield down but still robust.
• Outlook: Short-term PX likely remains in high震荡 due to strong cost support from oil, but risks include oil pullbacks and weaker demand; PXN maintains strength, price supported.
• Risks: Potential PX price declines from lower oil or poor demand.