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The State of Fintech Summary

Core Content

The State of Fintech report for 2022 provides an in-depth analysis of the current state and future outlook of the fintech industry. It highlights the impact of macroeconomic conditions, shifts in investment strategies, regulatory challenges, and the evolving landscape of Web3 and cryptocurrency.

Main Trends and Insights

Macro Trends: Economic Slowdown and Interest Rates

• Economic slowdown: The US economy has experienced a significant downturn, with inflation reaching a 40-year high and interest rates rising sharply.
• Interest rate hikes: The Federal Reserve's rate hikes have led to a dramatic increase in the benchmark lending rate, from near zero in 2020 to 3.83% by November 2021.
• Impact on fintech: Fintech companies, especially consumer-facing ones, have been heavily affected by rising interest rates, tightening budgets, and reduced public market performance.
• Stock performance: The STOXX Global Fintech Index, which outperformed the S&P 500 in 2021, has since traded at a discount.
• Consumer demand: The decline in consumer demand has led to reduced loan originations and increased delinquency rates, especially in BNPL and personal wealth management sectors.

Investment and Benchmarking: Founders Focus on Fundamentals

• Cooling investment: Despite a record year in 2021, VC investment in fintech has cooled in 2022, though it remains the second-highest annual total for the US.
• Valuation declines: Late-stage fintech companies have seen the steepest valuation declines, with public market valuations dropping by 55% since the peak in January 2022.
• Early-stage resilience: Early-stage companies are more resilient and may even benefit from the talent pool created by the economic slowdown.
• Fundraising challenges: Companies are struggling to raise capital, with many needing to extend runway and avoid being labeled as distressed. Non-dilutive financing, such as venture debt, is becoming more common.
• Down rounds: While not widely reported, there's increased discussion around down rounds, flat rounds, and round extensions, indicating a shift in investor sentiment.

Exits: On Hold, But Backlog Builds

• IPO slowdown: The IPO window for fintech companies has been largely closed since 2021, with no US VC-backed fintech IPOs in 2022.
• SPAC activity: SPACs have become a significant alternative for exits, with 167 SPACs hitting the US public markets in 2022 and $18B in trust value.
• Unicorn growth: US fintech unicorns have grown to 159, with a total valuation of $656B — a 38% and 15% increase since 2021.
• Exit backlog: The backlog of IPO-ready fintech companies is increasing, with many companies now staying private longer due to the unavailability of public market support.
• Secondary sales: Secondary market activity is on the rise, with more private fintechs selling shares at a discount, indicating investor uncertainty.

Web3 Spotlight: Building for a Crypto Future

• Web3 growth: Web3 companies were a breakout star in the innovation economy, with significant funding and attention in 2021.
• Company formations: The number of Web3 company formations peaked at 237 in Q1 2022, following an 8x increase over five quarters.
• User base: The 250 most popular decentralized apps have a combined monthly user base of 15.4 million, with 34% of users engaged in gaming and 26% in DeFi trading.
• Investor interest: VC deal activity in Web3 grew 3.7x from Q1 2019 to Q1 2022, driven by LP interest in crypto-specific funds.
• Crypto-specific funds: These funds raised $16.5B in 2021, with Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) leading the way with $5.5B in crypto investments.
• Crypto maturity: Web3 is at a 1999-level of maturity in terms of adoption, but users are primarily focused on making money rather than building community.

Key Information

• Fintech valuations: Public valuations have fallen sharply, and private market valuations are also resetting.
• Regulatory challenges: Fintech companies are now facing more scrutiny from federal agencies, which have expanded their oversight to include areas like BNPL and crypto trading.
• Consumer fintech decline: Consumer fintech sectors, such as payment apps and personal wealth management, have seen significant declines in investment and revenue growth.
• B2B fintech resilience: B2B fintech companies, including commercial payments and fintech infrastructure, remain relatively robust.
• IPO and SPAC activity: While IPOs are on hold, SPACs are increasing their share of fintech exits, with a growing backlog of potential targets.
• Web3 and crypto: Web3 continues to be a key area of innovation and investment, though the market has cooled from its peak in 2021.

Conclusion

Despite the challenges, the fintech industry is adapting and showing resilience. Founders are focusing on fundamentals, and while consumer-facing fintech is struggling, B2B fintech and Web3 remain strong areas for growth. The shift in regulatory focus and the rise of secondary market activity also signal a more mature and cautious fintech ecosystem.