20250627-招银国际-Favourable_regulatory_environment_and_improving_utility_fuel_stablecoin_outlook_7页_1mb

Coinbase (COIN US) Company Update - Equity Research Analysis

Date: 27 Jun 2025
Institution: CMB International Global Markets

Key Highlights & Investment Outlook

1. Stablecoin Outlook Improving

   • Recent favorable regulatory developments and Circle's IPO have enhanced investor sentiment for the stablecoin market.
   • Coinbase drives USDC adoption through initiatives like Coinbase Payments and potential SEC approval for tokenized equities, supporting the utility of USDC.

2. USDC Market Leadership

   • Coinbase, as the top distributor, holds 29% of total USDC supply in circulation (up from 20% in 2023). Its market share grows to 22%, driven by rewards programs and integration into its products.
   • USDC utility enhances its potential in cross-border payments, asset tokenization, and traditional capital markets.

3. Valuation & Rating

   • Target Price Revised: US$413.00 per share (up from US$325.00) due to improved stablecoin business valuation.
   • SOTP Valuation:
     • Transaction business: US$262.5/share (64%, based on 24x EV/EBITDA).
     • Custodial & asset management: US$17.3/share (4%).
     • Interest & stablecoin: US$112.3/share (27%) based on 18x EV/Sales.
   • Recommendation: Maintain BUY; stock has potential for >15% returns over 12 months.

Growth Opportunities

• Payment Use Cases: Partnerships like Coinbase-Shopify expand USDC usage in consumer payments and remittances.
• Tokenization of Assets: Activities such as tokenized equities capture growth in traditional finance.
• Market Potential: Addressable markets include crypto assets ($2.7tn Mkt Cap), cross-border payments ($288bn), and traditional capital markets ($180bn).

Market Context

• Stablecoin Market: ~$240bn (rapid growth compared to US M2).
• Crypto Assets: ~$2.7tn market cap in tracked digital assets.

Key Metrics & Data

• Current Price: US$375.07 | Target Price: US$413.00.
• P/S Ratio: 13.2x (2025E), down from 30.6x (2023).
• Revenue Growth (2024-2027E): Achieves ~112% YOY growth from ~$6.5bn to ~$8.0bn.
• EV/EBITDA: 12.4-11.9x (below average for traditional exchanges).

Analyst Notes

• Saiyi HE: Focuses on stablecoin valuation and utility.
• Wentao LU: Highlights Coinbase's leadership in USDC distribution and partnership growth.