2009年-世界发展银行全球_Africas_Growth_Turnaround___From_Fewer_Mistakes_to_Sustained_Growth_60页_1mb

Africa's Growth Turnaround: From Fewer Mistakes to Sustained Growth

Core Content

This working paper by John Page analyzes the economic growth turnaround in Sub-Saharan Africa from the late 1990s to 2005, focusing on the reduction in growth volatility and the role of policy and external factors in this shift. It argues that while Africa has experienced a significant improvement in economic performance, particularly in terms of reducing the frequency and severity of economic declines, the growth recovery remains fragile due to the lack of sustained improvements in key growth determinants such as investment, export diversification, and productivity.

Main Points

1. Economic Performance Overview

• Sub-Saharan Africa's economic performance has improved significantly since the mid-1990s, with an average growth rate of nearly 5% per year since 1995.
• Countries with at least 4% GDP growth now account for about 70% of the region's population and 80% of its GDP.
• The paper emphasizes that much of the improvement is due to fewer and less severe economic declines, not necessarily higher growth rates.

2. Growth Volatility and Trends

• Growth in Africa has historically been low and highly volatile.
• The period 1975–1994 saw more frequent growth declines than accelerations.
• From 1995–2005, growth accelerations became more frequent and less volatile, while declines decreased in frequency and severity.

3. Growth Accelerations and Decelerations

• Growth accelerations and decelerations are identified using a method that compares short-term growth trends to long-term averages.
• The paper finds that growth accelerations are more common in wealthier countries and resource-rich economies.
• Some countries, such as Eritrea, have experienced consistent growth, while others like the Democratic Republic of Congo have never had a growth acceleration.

4. Policy and External Factors

• The reduction in economic declines since 1995 is attributed to both better macroeconomic policies and some external luck, such as favorable global commodity prices.
• However, the lack of sustained improvements in investment, productivity, and export diversification suggests that the growth recovery is not deeply rooted.
• The global economic crisis of 2008 has raised concerns about the sustainability of this recovery, as it may have reversed some of the gains made.

5. Key Economic and Social Indicators

• During growth accelerations, savings and investment rates are higher, while consumption is lower.
• In contrast, during decelerations, consumption and trade decline significantly.
• Macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and exchange rates show distinct patterns during accelerations and decelerations.
• Governance indicators, including political stability, government effectiveness, and rule of law, are generally lower during economic declines.

Key Information

Growth Accelerations and Decelerations

• Growth Accelerations are defined as periods where the forward four-year moving average growth rate exceeds the country's long-term average.
• Growth Decelerations are periods where the forward three-year moving average growth rate is below the long-term average.
• The paper identifies 1,243 country-year observations from 1975 to 2005, with a notable shift in the balance between accelerations and decelerations.

Country Performance

• 7 countries (e.g., Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger) have never had a growth acceleration.
• 16 countries have avoided growth decelerations altogether, including top performers like Botswana and Mauritius.
• Resource-rich countries (e.g., oil exporters) experienced more frequent growth accelerations, but also more frequent decelerations.

Policy and Institutional Factors

• The CPIA score (Country Performance and Institutional Assessment) is lower during growth decelerations.
• Governance indicators such as voice and accountability, political stability, and control of corruption are lower during decelerations.
• The World Bank and several international development agencies (e.g., AusAID, DFID, Sida) supported the research.

Strategy for Sustained Growth

• The paper outlines four key strategies for achieving sustained growth in Africa:
  1. Managing natural resources better to avoid the volatility and mismanagement that often accompany resource wealth.
  2. Pushing nontraditional exports to reduce dependence on primary commodities.
  3. Building the African private sector to enhance economic resilience and growth.
  4. Creating new skills to support long-term productivity improvements.

Conclusion

• Africa's recent growth performance has improved due to fewer and less severe economic declines, largely driven by better macroeconomic policies and favorable global conditions.
• However, the lack of progress in key growth determinants and the vulnerability of the region to external shocks suggest that the growth recovery is fragile.
• The paper concludes that moving from a "fewer mistakes" to "sustained growth" requires a more comprehensive strategy that addresses structural issues and fosters long-term economic development.