2024-09-23-世界银行-巴西的区域融合（英）_32页_645kb

Regional Convergence in Brazil:

Labor Productivity Growth Across States (2002-2018)

Summary

1. Convergence Evidence

   • Brazil's states showed strong unconditional convergence in labor productivity from 2002 to 2018, with lower-productivity states experiencing faster growth.
   • The convergence rate was higher (2.3%) in the 2002–2010 period compared to 0.8% in 2010–2018, influenced by economic conditions.

2. Sectoral Breakdown

   • Strong convergence observed in agriculture, extractives, and manufacturing, while services convergence was weaker.
   • Non-agricultural sectors demonstrated faster convergence rates than services.

3. Impact of Initial Conditions

   • Lower human capital, higher poverty rates, lower tax collection, and poor infrastructure initially hindered productivity growth but weakened in significance after controlling for fixed effects.
   • States with higher initial poverty saw faster productivity growth, particularly in agricultural and extractive industries.

4. Geographic and Institutional Factors

   • Controlling for state fixed effects reduced convergence impact, indicating geographic barriers (e.g., infrastructure disparities).
   • Better human capital, institutional capacity (tax collection), and infrastructure accelerated convergence.

5. Implications

   • Regional convergence raises aggregate productivity and per capita income, but depends on reallocation of resources to high-productivity sectors.
   • Policy recommendations include improving infrastructure, enhancing human capital, and addressing sectoral barriers to accelerate convergence.

Key Findings

• Brazil's regions converged faster than Latin American cross-country averages, though disparities persist.
• Services lag behind other sectors in convergence due to structural factors.
• Periods of crisis (e.g., 2008, 2014) were linked to accelerated convergence, contrasting with periods of stability.

Methodology

• Data Source: Relação Anual de Informações Sociais (RAIS), a matched employer-employee dataset.
• Models: β-convergence tests with adjustments for state, industry fixed effects, and initial conditions.
• Key Variables: Labor productivity, poverty rate, human capital, tax collection, and infrastructure.

Policy Recommendations

• Promote factor mobility and sectoral reallocation toward high-productivity industries.
• Enhance human capital development and institutional reforms to address regional inequalities.
• Improve infrastructure and tax systems to support faster convergence.