世界银行-碳税对南亚有利吗？（英）-2023.5-47页_1mb

Summary of Carbon Taxes in South Asia

Introduction

This paper analyzes the economic and environmental impacts of implementing a carbon tax in South Asia using the Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT). The study focuses on a $25/ton CO2e carbon tax, its effects on welfare, fiscal revenues, economic growth, and income distribution, considering both standalone carbon taxes and comprehensive energy reforms including fossil fuel subsidy phaseouts. South Asia, as a developing region, faces challenges such as limited fiscal resources and climate vulnerability, but the findings suggest that carbon pricing can support green transitions without hindering inclusive growth.

Key Findings

• Welfare Co-Benefits and Fiscal Revenues: A $25/ton carbon tax leads to monetized welfare co-benefits equivalent to 1.4% of GDP by 2030, rising to 1.4% under a comprehensive reform (carbon tax plus subsidy phaseout). Fiscal revenues increase by approximately 1.3% of GDP, providing funds for revenue recycling.
• Economic Growth: Revenue recycling through public investment and cash transfers can mitigate negative short-term growth effects, with growth rates nearly neutral under optimal recycling. The Keynesian multiplier effect supports modest positive growth.
• Distributional Impacts: The carbon tax reduces income inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient for consumption, declining by 1-5% in some economies. Revenues can be recycled to households to enhance equity, with effects more pronounced under comprehensive reforms.
• Comprehensive Energy Price Reform (CEPR): Combining a carbon tax with fossil fuel subsidy elimination yields similar positive outcomes, including higher revenues (2% of GDP) and stronger equity gains, while accelerating energy transitions.
• Sensitivity Analysis: Results are robust to changes in energy prices and carbon tax rates, with lower prices or slower phase-ins amplifying benefits in certain scenarios. However, delays in reform risk reduced GHG reductions and increased costs.
• Political Economy Considerations: Successful implementation requires gradual phasing, revenue recycling to gain public support, and addressing challenges like subsidy removal and administrative capacity. Carbon taxes should be introduced alongside or after subsidy reforms to avoid distorted corrections.

Conclusion

South Asian economies can benefit from moderate carbon taxes, which offer positive welfare, revenue generation, and growth effects without necessitating trade-offs between development and climate action. The study emphasizes the importance of integrating carbon pricing into broader fiscal and energy policies for sustainable and inclusive green transitions.