世界银行-弥合差距_南亚的收入动员（英）-2025.4_44页_936kb

Bridging the Gap: Revenue Mobilization in South Asia

Executive Summary

This paper examines tax revenue shortfalls in South Asian countries, finding that average tax revenues amount to 18% of GDP, significantly below the 24% among emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Using stochastic frontier analysis, the study quantifies revenue gaps. Five of the eight largest countries in South Asia face shortfalls exceeding 5 percentage points of GDP, primarily in direct and indirect taxes. Even after accounting for country-specific factors like informality and agriculture, substantial tax gaps remain, underscoring the need for policy reforms in tax policy and administration.

Key Findings

• Revenue Levels: South Asia's tax-to-GDP ratio is the lowest among EMDE regions.
• Methodology: Stochastic frontier analysis reveals potential revenue gaps unexplained by tax rates, bases, or structural features.
• Country Performance:
  • Corporations and Direct Taxes: Higher shortfalls in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.
  • Indirect Taxes: Significant gaps in trade and consumption taxes (e.g., VAT).
• Remaining Gaps: Even after accounting for informality, finance, and governance, one-third of the shortfall in most countries persists.

Policy Recommendations

1. Tax Policy Reforms:
   • Eliminate exemptions, harmonize tax rates.
   • Leverage progressive taxation and broaden tax bases.
2. Tax Administration Enhancements:
   • Adopt digital tools for compliance, risk management, and enforcement.
3. Pollution Pricing: Use carbon taxes or emissions trading to raise revenue while addressing environmental challenges.

Data & Methods

• Analysis: Stochastic frontier analysis compares revenue potential based on tax rates and bases.
• Indicators: Tax revenue-to-GDP ratios, buoyancy rates, and informal sector proxies.

Conclusion

Tax revenue shortfalls in South Asia stem from inefficiencies in policy and administration. Addressing these through reforms—policy adjustments, digital integration, and innovative taxation—will enhance fiscal capacity fundamentally.