2025-05-22-Jefferies-LY公司（4689）_更新盈利预测-维持持有_15页_639kb

LY Corporation Equity Research Summary

Key Ratings & Target

• Rating: HOLD (Maintain)
• Price Target: ¥562 (previously ¥545, +9%)
• Market Cap: ¥3.8T (US$26.3B)
• Consensus EPS (FY3/26): ¥24.46 (vs Previous ¥23.71)
• EV/EBITDA (FY3/26E): 12.6x (Sector-average)

Investment Thesis

• Upside: Profit improvements, AI consolidation, PayPay IPO potential.
• Downside: Media segment slowdown, single-digit sales growth forecasts, intense competition.

Business Focus

Media Segment

• Yahoo Ads struggling; Search Ads growth flat due to ChatGPT impact (~2% share).
• LINE Ads/Yahoo Ads targeted for growth, but media overall still weak.

Commerce Segment

• Ecommerce promotions (used items) expected to drive Reuse (11-12% YoY).
• Focused on LY Premium to improve KPIs, but ROE remains a priority.
• Second-hand business strategy now frontloaded due to Beenos acquisition.

Financial Highlights (FY3/26E)

• Revenue: ¥2.08tn (8.3% YoY growth).
• Adjusted EBITDA: ¥512.5bn (8.9% YoY).
• EBITDA Margin: 25.1% (improvement in strategic segments).

Valuation

• New PT: ¥562, based on EV/EBITDA of 12.6x and P/E of 23x.
• Industry-average EV/EBITDA used for comparison.

Catalysts

• Successful PayPay IPO and AI integration.
• Visible impacts from ID consolidation (LineYahoo Premium).

Risks

• Media segment continues to slow; Internet ad spending reduction possible.
• Regulatory hurdles in fintech and aggressive competition in mobile payments.

Company Overview: LY Corporation (formerly Z Holdings) is a major Japanese internet and e-commerce player, managing core businesses (Media, Commerce, Strategic). It is navigating AI and fintech expansion through its ecosystem.