国际能源署-世界能源投资2025（英）_255页_20mb

Summary

World energy investment is expected to reach USD 3.3 trillion in 2025, a 2% increase in real terms from 2024. Clean energy investment (USD 2.2 trillion) makes up the majority of this, driven by renewables, electrification, and grid development, while fossil fuel investment (USD 1.1 trillion) experiences its first decline since 2020 due to lower prices and policy shifts.

Key Trends

• Power Generation: Electricity investment reaches USD 1.5 trillion, with renewables (solar and wind) leading (USD 1 trillion), followed by fossil fuels. Solar PV and wind account for 98% of growth.
• Grid and Storage: Grid investment grows to USD 400 billion, struggling to keep pace with renewable deployment, leading to connection queues and inefficiencies. Battery storage hits USD 66 billion, helped by falling costs and policy support.
• Fuels: Investment in low-emissions fuels (USD 30 billion) remains low but is growing. Coal investment rebounds to USD 46 billion, partly due to energy security concerns, while LNG and refining see mixed results.
• Transport: Electric vehicle (EV) investment reaches USD 22 billion (7% of all transport investment), with China, Europe, and the U.S. leading.
• R&D: Clean energy R&D spending increases by 75% (to USD 54 billion), but venture capital slows due to economic pressures.

Geopolitical and Economic Drivers

• Geopolitics: Sanctions (U.S. on Chinese tech), resource competition (critical minerals), and trade barriers (EVs) create investment uncertainty.
• Finance: Higher interest rates and currency depreciation strain debt servicing in EMDEs. DFI and DFI support are crucial for unlocking clean energy projects.
• Technology: AI and data centers drive new electricity demand (e.g., USD 170-340 billion by 2030), increasing pressure on grids and storage.

Regional Insights

• China: Leads global investment (USD 630 billion), with clean energy outpacing fossil fuels.
• U.S.: Maintains largest investor role (USD 40 billion), supporting LNG and AI-driven energy demand.
• Europe: Faces grid constraints and high debt servicing costs (USD 390 billion).
• Africa: Accounts for only 2% of global clean energy investment, hindered by financing gaps and unstable currencies.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Implications: Policy stability, access to capital, and technological innovation are critical to meeting COP28 goals (e.g., tripling energy efficiency investment by 2030). International co-operation on grids and critical mineral supply chains is essential for energy security.

Methodology Note

Investment estimates are based on IEA data, focusing on ongoing capital spending. Energy efficiency investment reflects incremental spending on more efficient equipment. Methodological details and regional groupings are outlined in the annex.

For detailed regional and sectoral insights, refer to the full report.