2025-06-16-IEA-世界能源投资2025（英）_255页_20mb

World Energy Investment 2025 Summary

Core Content

The 10th edition of the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Investment report provides a comprehensive overview of global energy investment trends in 2024 and an initial assessment of 2025. The report highlights the growing importance of clean energy, the shift in investment patterns, and the impact of geopolitical and economic factors on the energy sector.

Key Findings

• Global Investment in 2025: Energy investment is expected to rise to USD 3.3 trillion, a 2% real-term increase from 2024. Clean energy investment will reach USD 2.2 trillion, double that of fossil fuels (USD 1.1 trillion).
• Clean Energy Growth: Investment in renewables, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency, and electrification has surged, driven by post-pandemic recovery, energy security concerns, and technological advancements.
• China's Leadership: China is the largest global energy investor, accounting for over 25% of total global investment. Its investment in clean energy has increased significantly, with a 20% rise in its share of clean energy investment over the past decade.
• Fossil Fuel Investment: Upstream oil investment is expected to decline by 6% in 2025, the first annual drop since 2020. Coal and gas investments remain strong in China and India due to rising electricity demand and energy security concerns.
• Electricity Demand and the Age of Electricity: Electricity demand is growing rapidly, driven by industrial processes, cooling, data centres, and AI. Investment in the electricity sector is expected to reach USD 1.5 trillion in 2025, with over 50% of total energy investment going into the power sector and electrification.
• Solar and Wind: Solar PV and wind together account for 98% of the growth in electricity generation investment over the past decade. Solar investment in 2024 was USD 450 billion, making it the largest single item in the global energy investment portfolio. Wind investment, though affected by offshore setbacks, remains strong, especially onshore.
• Grid Infrastructure: Grid investment is lagging behind generation, with USD 400 billion spent globally in 2024. Grid bottlenecks, long permitting processes, and financial constraints are slowing the deployment of new generation capacity.
• Low-Emissions Fuels: Investment in low-emissions fuels is expected to reach a new high in 2025, but remains small in absolute terms. Carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) is projected to increase by over 10 times by 2027 if all approved projects proceed.
• Electric Vehicles (EVs): EV sales are driving electrification investment, which is set to reach USD 800 billion in 2025. However, investment in the buildings sector is affected by slower construction starts, particularly in China.
• Geographic Shifts: Investment in the Middle East is shifting towards upstream oil and gas, with the region expected to account for 20% of global upstream investment in 2025. Africa remains underinvested, with 2% of clean energy investment despite housing 20% of the global population.
• International Finance: International public finance accounts for about 7% of clean energy investment in emerging and developing economies (EMDE), but this is far below the level needed. The role of development finance institutions is increasing, especially in supporting clean energy projects in EMDE.
• Technology and Innovation: The "Age of Electricity" is reshaping investment trends, with a growing emphasis on low-carbon technologies. The top 20 energy R&D spenders include companies like CATL, BYD, Tesla, and Petrochina, reflecting a shift from traditional oil and gas firms to clean technology innovators.
• Venture Capital Trends: Venture capital investment in clean energy has declined over the past two years, while investment in AI-related projects has grown significantly to USD 84 billion in 2024, three times that of clean energy VC funding.
• Cost Trends: The cost of clean technologies has declined sharply, with the IEA Clean Energy Equipment Price Index hitting a record low in early 2024. However, grid materials and upstream oil and gas costs are rising, with grid materials nearly doubling in price over five years.
• Policy and Market Uncertainty: Policy uncertainty and financial constraints are affecting investment in low-emissions fuels and hydrogen projects. Despite this, the Baku to Belem Roadmap aims to mobilise USD 1.3 trillion in climate finance for developing economies by 2035.
• Challenges in EMDE: Developing economies face significant challenges in mobilising capital for energy infrastructure, with debt servicing costs in Africa accounting for over 85% of total energy investment in 2025.

Main Trends and Priorities

• Rapid Growth in Clean Energy: Clean energy investment is outpacing fossil fuel investment, with solar PV and wind being the main contributors.
• Energy Security as a Key Driver: Energy security concerns are pushing countries like China and India to increase investments in coal and gas plants, as well as renewables.
• Shift in Investment Geography: China and the Middle East are leading in energy investment, while Africa remains underinvested despite its population size.
• Role of International Finance: International public finance is playing a crucial role in supporting clean energy projects, especially in EMDE, but more needs to be done to meet demand.
• Technological Advancements: The rise of AI and data centres is increasing demand for reliable and low-carbon power, with SMRs and geothermal being considered as potential solutions.
• Market Dynamics: The U.S. tight oil sector is a bellwether for market changes, with a 10% decline in investment expected in 2025 due to cost pressures and geopolitical tensions.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of sustained investment in clean energy and the electricity sector to meet global energy demands and reduce emissions. While challenges remain, especially in EMDE, the shift towards low-carbon technologies and the growing role of international finance are key to achieving energy security, sustainability, and affordability.