2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Central_Asias_growing_partnership_with_China_14页_523kb

Central Asia's Growing Partnership with China

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of China's increasing influence in Central Asia, focusing on the political, geopolitical, and economic dimensions of its engagement with the region. It outlines how China has transitioned from a peripheral actor to a significant regional partner, reshaping the dynamics of Central Asian states in relation to both Russia and the European Union (EU).

Main Points

Political and Geopolitical Impact

• Phased Approach: China's involvement in Central Asia has evolved in phases, from border demilitarisation and territorial disputes in the 1990s to fostering regional cooperation through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
• Border Resolutions: China resolved its border disputes with Kazakhstan (1994), Kyrgyzstan (1996), and Tajikistan (2002), acquiring relatively small but strategically valuable territories.
• SCO Formation: The SCO, initially the Shanghai Group, was established in 2001 to address common threats like terrorism, separatism, and extremism. It reflects China's desire to shape a "healthy Central Asian order" free from Western and Islamist influences.
• Security Cooperation: The SCO includes mechanisms like the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), but remains limited in its ability to coordinate multilateral security actions.
• Geopolitical Rapprochement: China and Russia share similar interests in ensuring regional stability and countering Western influence. Central Asian states are concerned about the dual dominance of Russia and China.
• Political Alignment: The alliance between Russia, China, and Central Asian regimes has led to the suppression of political dissent and the curbing of civil society and NGO activities. The 2005 Andijan incident exemplifies this alignment, with both Russia and China supporting the Uzbek government.

Economic Readjustment

• Economic Influence: China has become a major economic player in Central Asia, offering investment, infrastructure development, and trade opportunities.
• Trade Growth: Sino-Central Asian trade has seen significant growth, with China's trade volume with the region increasing from around $1 billion in 2000 to over $18 billion in 2007.
• Trade Structure: Kazakhstan is the largest trading partner with China, accounting for 70% of total trade. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan follow with 9% and 7%, respectively.
• Strategic Investments: China has invested heavily in infrastructure, including highways, railroads, and hydroelectric projects, which have been key to its economic engagement.
• Energy Sector: China is keen to secure energy resources, particularly oil and gas, through projects like the Sino-Kazakh pipeline and the joint Central Asian gas pipeline.
• Energy Strategy: China aims to diversify its energy imports and reduce reliance on maritime routes, using Central Asia as a strategic overland corridor for energy supplies.
• Mineral Resources: Central Asia's mineral wealth, including gold, uranium, and copper, has attracted Chinese investment, especially in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
• Banking Sector: China has prioritised the development of the banking sector in Central Asia, as it is essential for large-scale infrastructure and economic projects.

Key Information

• SCO's Role: The SCO has facilitated dialogue and cooperation on security and development, but lacks the institutional capacity for effective multilateral action.
• China's Economic Strategy: China's economic presence is driven by the need for raw materials, infrastructure development, and market expansion.
• Regional Imbalance: Central Asia remains economically dependent on Russia and China, with limited diversification in exports to China, which are heavily concentrated in oil, gas, and metals.
• EU's Perspective: The EU sees China as both a competitor and a potential partner in Central Asia, aiming for cooperation rather than confrontation. However, China's influence challenges the EU's goals of promoting democracy and stability in the region.
• Future Prospects: China's long-term strategy in Central Asia is focused on maintaining stability, securing energy resources, and expanding its economic footprint, while the region continues to navigate its relationships with both Russia and the West.

Recommendations and Conclusions

• SCO's Challenges: The SCO needs stronger institutional structures, more coordination, and a clearer security framework to become more effective.
• Regional Stability: The region's stability is crucial for China's economic and strategic interests, particularly in relation to Xinjiang and the broader Central Asia-Afghanistan-Pakistan triangle.
• Economic Specialisation: Central Asia is likely to become more economically specialised in raw materials due to China's growing demand and investment.
• Geopolitical Balance: Central Asian states seek to maintain a balance between Russia and China, with the EU seen as a potential counterweight to both powers.

Endnotes

The document references several studies and projects, highlighting the complex interplay of political and economic interests in Central Asia. It underscores the importance of understanding China's strategic objectives and the implications of its growing influence on the region's future.