20210407-招银国际-海尔智家-06690.HK-Outperforming_by_various_self-upgrades_8页_1mb

报告摘要

Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content

Haier Smart Home (HSH-H) is currently rated BUY with a target price of HK$45.83, representing a +24.1% upside from the current price of HK$33.10. The company is expected to achieve a 30% NP CAGR from FY20 to FY23, significantly outperforming the 9% growth rate from FY17 to FY20. This growth is attributed to three key drivers: recovery in the domestic market, strong export growth, and various self-upgrades in product and service offerings.

Main Points

FY20 Results Exceeded Expectations: Net profit from the core business rose 26% YoY to RMB 11.3 billion, surpassing estimates by 10% and 12%. The performance was driven by impressive opex control and lower-than-expected finance costs.
Strong 4Q20 Performance: Domestic sales grew 20% YoY, with a 16% increase in 3Q20. The OP margin rose by 3.6ppt to 6.5%. Key product segments showed growth: Fridge (~15%), Washing machines (10%), AC (50%), Kitchen appliances (20%), and Water heater (15%).
Positive FY21 Guidance: Management anticipates double-digit sales growth for both domestic and overseas segments in FY21, despite FX headwinds. Casarte, AC, and Kitchen appliances are expected to grow by 20%+, 30+, and 30%+, respectively, due to high-tech product launches, user-friendly services, and the promotion of the "three winged bird" brand.
Efficiency Gains Offset GP Margin Pressures: GP margin may face a 4-6ppt drag in 1Q21 due to raw material inflation, but this will be offset by ASP increases, product premiumization, and efficiency gains from digitalization and synergies. Haier SH aims for ~10% NP margin in the domestic segment and 5% in the overseas segment in the long run.
Valuation Analysis: The new target price of HK$45.83 is based on a 23x FY22E P/E ratio, which is inline with the average of leading China peers and 26% higher than international peers. The stock is currently trading at 17x/15x FY21E/FY22E P/E, which is considered fairly attractive by the analysts.

Key Financials (FY19A–FY23E)

Metric	FY19A	FY20A	FY21E	FY22E	FY23E
Revenue (RMB mn)	198,006	209,703	235,711	256,184	271,478
YoY Growth (%)	11.5	5.9	12.4	8.7	6.0
Net Profit (RMB mn)	8,206	8,877	11,752	14,932	18,616
Diluted EPS (RMB)	1.249	1.335	1.476	1.654	2.062
YoY Growth (%)	5.5	8.2	12.5	12.1	24.7
P/E (x)	20.3	18.8	16.7	14.9	12.0
P/B (x)	2.9	2.7	2.9	2.5	2.1
Yield (%)	1.5	2.0	2.4	2.7	3.3
ROE (%)	17.1	16.3	18.8	20.4	23.3

Earnings Revisions

Metric	CMBIS Estimate	Previous Estimate	Difference (%)
Revenue (RMB mn)	235,711	231,133	+2.0%
Gross Profit (RMB mn)	68,617	69,101	-0.7%
EBIT (RMB mn)	15,507	14,148	+9.6%
Net Profit (RMB mn)	11,752	10,656	+10.3%
Diluted EPS (RMB)	1.476	1.180	+25.0%

Valuation Comparison with Peers

Company	P/E (FY21E)	P/E (FY22E)	P/B (FY21E)	P/B (FY22E)	ROE (FY21E)	3yrs PEG (FY21E)	Yield (FY21E)
Haier SH - H	16.7	14.9	2.9	2.5	18.5	1.1	2.4
Midea Group	23.8	20.7	5.2	4.5	22.5	2.1	2.0
Gree Electronics	19.3	14.9	3.1	2.8	16.0	2.8	2.6
Hisense HA	14.2	12.4	2.3	2.0	16.6	0.8	2.5
JS Global Lifestyle	28.7	23.1	6.5	5.4	20.4	0.8	0.9
Zhejiang Supor	28.7	25.2	7.1	6.2	24.6	1.7	2.0
Average (China)	29.9	22.5	5.5	4.6	18.3	5.9	-
Average (International)	23.8	19.6	4.5	3.9	18.5	1.6	-

Summary

Haier Smart Home is performing well, driven by domestic recovery, export growth, and product/service upgrades. The company has exceeded FY20 expectations, with strong 4Q20 results and positive FY21 guidance. Despite GP margin pressures, efficiency gains are expected to offset these. The target price is considered attractive, and the company's valuation is in line with China peers and 26% higher than international peers. The stock is trading at a fair price with attractive P/E ratios.