20140624-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_11页_397kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - 24 June 2014

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of market data and analyst insights for June 24, 2014, focusing on key stock performances, market activities, and company-specific updates. It includes financial metrics, earnings forecasts, and analyst ratings for several companies, with a special emphasis on DNL (D&L Industries Inc), a conglomerate that provides specialized products to major consumer companies.

Key Market Indicators

Indicator	Value	% Change
PSEi	6,761.99	0.46
Turnover (PHPm)	6,223.55	(80.22)
PLDT ADR (USD)	65.51	0.03
PLDT ADR (PHP)	2,869.01	0.05
Ave interbank rate	2.28	28.13 bps
PHP/USD rate	43.79	(0.01)

Analysts

Head of Research / Economist: Luz Lorenzo
Analysts: Laura Dy-Liacco, Rommel Rodrigo, Lovell Sarreal, Katherine Tan, Ramon Adviento

Top Idea: Conglomerates

DNL (PHP9.82)

Rating: BUY (unchanged)
Target Price: PHP11.50 (up 29%)
Upside Potential: 19% from current price
Reason for Buy: DNL is a key supplier to top consumer companies and is expected to benefit from strong Philippine consumption. The company's net income forecast was raised by 9.7% to PHP1.72b for 2014 and 17.6% to PHP2.1b for 2015.
Revenue Forecast: Increased by 12.8% to PHP14.09b for 2014 and 18.6% to PHP15.51b for 2015.
Key Drivers: Product innovations, robust volume growth, and higher commodity prices.

Market Talk Highlights

GMA7 Share Sale: GMA Network Inc disclosed the sale of a participating minority equity interest to Ramon Ang. The SELL rating on GMAP is maintained pending further details.
GTCAP and Toyota Cubao: GTCAP sold 40% of Toyota Cubao Inc to Mitsui & Co, now holding 51.4% of the company. This move aims to strengthen Toyota's position in auto dealership and leverage Mitsui's expertise.
GLO Preferred Shares: Globe Telecom Inc is targeting the end of July for the issuance of PHP10b in preferred shares. The initial offering will be for PHP7b.
ERC Price Cap Extension: The Energy Regulatory Commission extended the secondary price cap in WESM for 45 days, citing the need to protect consumers and mitigate high prices. A public consultation is also being conducted to discuss the possibility of a permanent extension.

Valuation Summary (Philippine Consumer Companies)

Stock	Rating	Share Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	PER (x) 2014F	EV/EBITDA (x) 2014F	PER (x) 2015F	EV/EBITDA (x) 2015F
URC	BUY	151.40	16.2	29.7	18.5	25.8	15.8
JFC	BUY	176.00	19.3	33.4	17.5	28.5	14.9
RRHI	BUY	67.00	15.7	27.0	10.7	22.5	8.5
PGOLD	BUY	43.10	16.0	26.2	15.2	22.2	12.8
RFM	BUY	6.20	7.3	23.4	12.9	20.1	10.7
PIP	BUY	4.78	26.6	17.3	6.6	15.0	5.9
PF	BUY	235.00	31.9	12.2	5.7	10.9	5.1
CIC	BUY	44.00	13.6	17.8	7.4	15.2	6.2

Forecast Changes Summary

Metric	Old 2014F (PHPm)	Revised 2014F (PHPm)	Forecast Change (%)	Old 2015F (PHPm)	Revised 2015F (PHPm)	Forecast Change (%)
Total Revenues	12,494	14,090	12.8	13,078	15,508	18.6
Gross Profit	2,240	2,552	13.9	2,538	3,012	18.7
Operating Expenses	(439)	(597)	36.1	(465)	(625)	34.5
Operating Income	1,801	1,955	8.5	2,074	2,388	15.1
Net Income	1,572	1,724	9.7	1,789	2,103	17.6

Earnings and Valuations Table (as of 23 June 2014)

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Rating	Year	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS Growth (%)	EPS Growth (%)	PE(x) 2014F	EV/EBITDA (x) 2014F	PE(x) 2015F	EV/EBITDA (x) 2015F
DNL	9.82	11.50	19	BUY	2014	1,724	23.3	21.0	20.3	16.8	16.8	16.8

The Week Ahead

24 June: Shang Properties, Inc; Robinsons Retail Holdings, Inc; Philex Mining Corporation; Oriental Petroleum and Minerals Corporation; Jolliville Holdings Corporation; Supercity Realty Development Corporation
26 June: Global-Estate Resorts, Inc; Lorenzo Shipping Corporation; Cebu Air, Inc; Anchor Land Holdings, Inc; JG Summit Holdings, Inc; Solid Group, Inc
27 June: Arthaland Corporation; Primex Corporation; AG Finance, Inc; Vivant Corporation; Macay Holdings, Inc; Jolibee Foods Corporation; MJCI Investments, Inc; Cosco Capital, Inc
30 June: Philippine Realty & Holdings Corporation; Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation; Manila Jockey Club, Inc; Starmalls, Inc
Annual Stockholder's Meeting: Multiple companies are scheduled for this week, including those listed above.

Conclusion

The document highlights DNL's strong performance and growth potential, aligning it with the average PER of Philippine consumer stocks. It also outlines key market activities, such as the sale of GMA7 shares and the extension of the WESM price cap, and provides a comprehensive valuation table for various consumer and utility companies. Analysts maintain a BUY rating on DNL and other consumer stocks, emphasizing the company's role in supporting major consumer brands and its positive outlook for the future.

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