2003年-世界发展银行全球_Philippines___Development_Policy_Update_40页_248kb

Philippines Development Policy Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the Philippines' economic and social developments as of October 16, 2003, with a focus on fiscal and economic management, public sector performance, and private sector growth. It outlines key priorities for the country to achieve sustainable development and reduce poverty.

Main Points

Economic Performance

• The Philippines has shown resilience to global and domestic shocks, achieving moderate economic growth of about 4% annually over the past two years.
• Growth has been geographically widespread, with 12 out of 16 regions posting growth.
• Services sector and agriculture have been the main contributors to growth.
• Private consumption has driven growth, accounting for 80% of the growth in recent years.

Challenges

• Investment levels have remained below 20% of GNP, down from 25% in 1997.
• Capital stock per worker has stagnated or declined over the past 20 years.
• Fiscal deficit reached 5.3% of GDP in 2002, and tax revenues fell to below 12% of GDP.
• Weak external demand, drought, and tight fiscal spending have contributed to a slowdown in growth.
• The Philippine Peso has depreciated by 4% against the US Dollar over the past two years, while the Thai Baht has appreciated by 8%.

Trade and Balance of Payments

• Merchandise exports grew by 1% in 2003 compared to 14% in 2002.
• Exports to major markets (US, Taiwan, Singapore, Netherlands, Korea) have contracted.
• Imports increased by 16.6% due to higher oil prices and demand for capital goods.
• The trade balance turned from a surplus of $0.8 billion in 2002 to a deficit of $1.5 billion in 2003.
• FDI inflows fell by 90% from US$0.9 billion in 2002 to US$0.1 billion in 2003.
• The balance of payments showed a net outflow of $0.6 billion in 2003 compared to a net inflow of $1.7 billion in 2002.

Investment and Savings

• Gross national savings have been around 24-27% of GDP over the last three years, largely due to remittances.
• Despite savings, domestic investments are constrained by a poor investment climate, contraction in public investment, and perceptions of risk.
• Business confidence is low, with 76% of respondents in August 2003 not planning expansion.

Monetary Policy

• The central bank cut policy interest rates by 225 basis points since 2001.
• Deposit rates and lending rates have fallen, with the 91-day treasury bill rate dropping from 10% in 2001 to 5.4% in 2002.
• The spread between deposit and lending rates remains one of the highest in the region.

Poverty and Social Development

• Poverty reduction has been modest, with the percentage of Filipinos living on less than $1 per day falling from 13.5% in 2000 to 11.2% in 2003.
• Most MDGs have shown positive progress, including access to water, universal primary education, gender equality, reducing child mortality, and HIV/AIDS control.
• Two MDGs require extra effort: halving underweight children and reducing maternal mortality by 75%.

Key Priorities

• Increase tax to GDP ratio by at least 0.5 percentage points per year.
• Reduce NPC and GOCC losses to avoid undermining fiscal management.
• Articulate a vision for financial sustainability of pension funds.
• Press ahead with civil service reform to rationalize, depoliticize, and professionalize the system.
• Accelerate power sector reforms to alleviate infrastructure bottlenecks.
• Facilitate reduction of non-performing loans and corporate restructuring.
• Strengthen property, shareholder, and creditor rights to deepen capital markets.
• Resist pressure to increase import protection, focusing instead on productivity and market competition.
• Improve the quality of basic education and ensure resources for priority health programs.
• Enhance peace and personal security.

Conclusion

The Philippines has managed to achieve moderate growth despite numerous challenges, but sustained development will require improved fiscal management, reforms in the public sector, and enhanced private sector performance. The focus on investment, infrastructure, and governance is crucial to sustaining growth, reducing poverty, and improving social outcomes.