2018年-世界发展银行全球_Rwanda_Economic_Update_June_2018___Tackling_Stunting_-_An_Unfinished_Agenda_46页_2mb

Rwanda Economic Update Summary (June 2018)

Core Content

This document provides an overview of Rwanda's economic performance in 2017 and its renewed focus on tackling child stunting, a critical issue affecting human capital development. It highlights the macroeconomic context, policy responses, and future outlook for the economy, as well as the progress and challenges in addressing malnutrition.

Economic Performance in 2017

1.1 Global and Regional Economic Recovery

• Global Growth: Improved in 2017, with a 3% real GDP growth, up from 2.4% in 2016. This was the highest growth since 2011.
• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): Growth accelerated to 2.4% in 2017 from 1.3% in 2016, but per capita income growth remained weak.
• Risks: Financial market disorders, protectionism, and geopolitical tensions could hinder global growth in 2018.

1.2 Rwanda's Economic Growth

• Real GDP Growth: Increased to 6.1% in 2017, slightly up from 6% in 2016, outperforming the 5.2% projection.
• Sectoral Contributions:
  • Agriculture: Grew by 6.6% in 2017, driven by favorable weather and increased food crop production.
  • Services: Expanded by 8%, with professional and administrative services leading growth at 22.4%.
  • Construction: Continued to contract, contributing to slower industrial growth.
• Industrial Growth: Fell to 4.2% in 2017 from 6.7% in 2016 due to subdued construction activity.
• Export Growth: Rose by 33.5% in real terms in 2017, outperforming import growth. Net exports contributed significantly to growth.
• Private Consumption: Recovered slightly, rising by 1.7% in 2017 after a decline in 2016.
• Government Consumption: Grew by 10.7% in 2017.
• Investment Growth: Slowed to 6.5% in 2017 from an average of 13.3% in 2013–15.

Macroeconomic Outlook and Risks

• Inflation: Subsided in 2017, with headline inflation at 0.7% in December, down from 8.1% in February.
• Core Inflation: Declined from 5.6% to 2.0% over the year.
• Exchange Rate: The Rwanda Franc remained relatively stable against the US Dollar.
• Current Account Deficit (CAD): Reduced from over 15% in 2016 to about 7% in 2017, aligning with historical levels before the 2013–15 investment push.
• Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Rwanda (BNR) cut the policy rate to 5.5% by December 2017, the lowest since 2005.
• Credit Growth: Increased to 13.2% by year-end, up from less than 8% in mid-2017.
• Fiscal Policy: The fiscal stance slightly expanded in FY 2017/18, with public debt at 48% of GDP.
• Debt Risk: Remains low, but the government needs to manage external imbalances and strengthen domestic financing.

Risks to Growth

• Agricultural Vulnerability: Poor weather could impact rain-fed agriculture, which is a key sector.
• Global Conditions: A reversal in the global recovery could depress export prices.
• Private Sector Response: Limited engagement with the improved investment climate threatens growth sustainability.
• Public Investment Model: Recent growth slowdown highlights the limitations of the public-led model, emphasizing the need for private sector involvement.

Tackling Stunting: An Unfinished Agenda

2.1 Stunting in Rwanda

• Prevalence: Stunting rates fell from 50% (2005) to 38% (2014/15) among children under 5, but remain high.
• Impact: Stunting affects cognitive development, educational attainment, and lifetime earnings. It perpetuates a cycle of poverty.
• Intergenerational Transmission: Malnourished mothers are more likely to have stunted children.
• Regional Disparities: Stunting is most prevalent in rural and poor households (nearly 50%), but also affects middle-income households (around 25%).
• Mother's Education: Children of uneducated mothers have double the stunting rate compared to those with secondary or higher education.
• Parity: Stunting rates among poor households are higher for first and second births, and even higher for fourth births.

2.2 Progress in Addressing Malnutrition

• Care Practices: Improved significantly, with better antenatal, delivery, and postnatal care.
• Environmental Health: Access to water and sanitation improved, but 91% of poor households still lack handwashing stations.
• Feeding Practices: Suboptimal complementary feeding remains a challenge, with only 18% of children aged 6–24 months receiving a minimum acceptable diet.
• Nutrition-Specific Interventions: Only 24% of children under 2 receive adequate care, 37% have adequate environmental health, and 34% have a minimally acceptable diet. Less than 4% receive all three.

2.3 Government Commitment

• Targets: Aim to reduce stunting to 19% by 2024, in line with the 2018–24 Health Sector Strategic Plan.
• Coordination: A National Childhood Development Coordination Program was established under the Prime Minister.
• Community Initiatives: Kirehe district serves as a model for successful stunting reduction, with a dramatic decline from 50% to 29% over five years.
• Policy Tools: Emphasis on results-based approaches, accountability, and performance-based incentives for health facilities.

2.4 Key Recommendations

• Target the Poorest Children: Focus on the 1,000-day window for the most vulnerable.
• Engage Stakeholders: Mobilize parents, mayors, and policymakers.
• Expand Domestic Financing: Better align resources to outcomes and improve tracking of stunting-related spending.
• Generate Evidence: Document what works and how to scale up effective interventions.

Conclusion

Rwanda has made significant progress in reducing stunting but still faces challenges in ensuring long-term success. The country's economic recovery is promising, with growth driven by agriculture and services, but risks remain. The government's renewed commitment to tackling stunting through targeted interventions and improved coordination is critical for achieving its development goals and building a strong, healthy, and productive workforce.