2024-09-09-IEA-2024年年中煤炭市场报告_29页_2mb

报告摘要

Introduction

Coal markets have stabilized after years of uncertainty due to the global energy crisis. Coal remains the primary energy source for electricity generation globally, but its use faces pressure from climate goals and the adoption of clean energy technologies. Demand, supply, and trade volumes reached record highs in 2023, with expectations for slight flattening in 2024 and a potential decline by 2025.

Global Demand

In 2023, global coal demand grew by 2.6% to 8.7 billion tonnes, led by China and India.
Key drivers include electricity generation and industrial consumption, with China and India showing significant growth.
In 2024, demand is expected to grow by 0.4%, with China and India as major contributors.
By 2025, demand is forecasted to decline by 0.3% due to reduced growth in China and declines in other regions, particularly advanced economies.

Global Supply

Global coal production reached an all-time high of 8.9 billion tonnes in 2023, driven by China, India, and Indonesia.
In 2024, production is expected to decrease slightly by 0.3% due to factors like security checks in China and stock building.
Growth in India and Indonesia will partially offset declines in the US and Russia.

Trade

Global coal trade volumes reached an all-time high in 2023, surpassing 1.5 billion tonnes.
China and India are the top importers, with Indonesia becoming a dominant exporter.
In 2024, trade volumes are expected to marginally increase, supported by demand from China and India, though sensitive to policy changes.

Prices

Coal prices have stabilized after high volatility, with a return to normal relationships between thermal and metallurgical coal.
Thermal coal prices fluctuate based on regional fundamentals, but overall stability is observed post-Ukraine invasion and energy crisis.

Implications

Policies to phase out coal and shifts toward renewables are exerting significant pressure on coal demand, with China as a key uncertainty factor. Environmental concerns and climate goals remain central themes influencing future trends.

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