世界发展银行-Uganda-_-Jobs-Strategy-for-Inclusive-Growth_80页_7mb

Uganda: Jobs Strategy for Inclusive Growth

Core Content

This report outlines a jobs strategy for Uganda aimed at achieving inclusive growth by addressing the country's labor market challenges and promoting economic transformation. It identifies ten key facts that highlight the main employment issues in Uganda and provides policy recommendations to create more waged jobs, improve job quality, and foster inclusive economic development.

Main Challenges

1. Slowing Economic Growth

• Trend growth in Uganda's economy has not been fast enough to create sufficient high-earning jobs for its rapidly growing workforce.
• Economic growth has slowed since 2008, leading to stagnation in productivity and real earnings.

2. Rapid Labor Force Growth

• The working-age population is growing at a fast rate (3.92% per annum from 2011–2017).
• It is expected to increase by 13 million between 2017 and 2030, creating significant pressure on job creation.

3. Deteriorating Access to Jobs

• Access to employment is high (77% of the population aged 15–64 is employed), but quality of jobs is low.
• Only 24% of employed Ugandans are in wage employment, and a majority are self-employed or work for family.

4. Declining Job Quality

• Median real earnings in industry and services are falling for both males and females.
• Most workers earn less than USD 35 per month and work fewer than 35 hours per week.
• The poorest 40% of Ugandans are more likely to be engaged in agriculture than the top 60%.

5. Increasing Spatial Inequalities

• Job opportunities are increasingly unevenly distributed across regions.
• Urban areas are underperforming in terms of job creation and productivity compared to rural areas.

6. Slow Transition from Subsistence Agriculture

• A large majority of Ugandans, especially youth, are still employed in subsistence agriculture.
• Agricultural productivity remains low, and the sector does not provide sufficient wage employment.

7. Slow Urbanization

• Despite high population growth, urbanization is proceeding at a slow pace.
• This limits the potential for creating higher productivity jobs in urban areas.

8. Slow Transition to Waged Employment

• The shift from non-wage to wage employment is slow, especially for youth.
• Waged employment is rising but still lags behind the Sub-Saharan Africa average.

9. Low Private Sector Demand for Waged Workers

• Private sector demand for wage workers is limited, which hinders job creation.
• This is partly due to low productivity and poor business environments.

10. Lack of Job Shift to Higher Productivity Firms

• Jobs are not shifting to higher productivity firms, which limits economic growth and job quality.

Key Recommendations

1. Labor Demand, Not Supply, is the Core Problem

• Uganda needs to focus on increasing labor demand through economic transformation, not just improving labor supply.

2. Promote Jobs-Rich Trade Strategy

• A trade strategy that encourages commercial agriculture and agro-processing can increase demand for off-farm wage employment.
• This would help shift workers from subsistence farming to more productive sectors.

3. Create More Waged Jobs

• Policies should be designed to increase the number of waged jobs, especially in urban areas.
• This includes improving regulatory frameworks, encouraging private investment, and supporting urban development.

4. Managed Urbanization

• Urbanization should be managed to ensure mobility into better jobs.
• Investment in secondary towns and Greater Kampala is essential to create labor-intensive jobs.

5. Accelerate Agricultural Transformation

• Agricultural productivity must be increased to reduce the relative price of food and create off-farm job opportunities.
• This includes commercial farming, value chain linkages, and supporting rural youth through access to finance, technology, and skills.

6. Foster Inclusion into Better Jobs

• Policies should promote inclusion in the labor market, especially for youth and women.
• This requires targeted investments, regulatory reforms, and capacity building.

Policy Focus

• Public investment and policy reform must be aggressively prioritized for job creation.
• Infrastructure development should focus on labor-intensive sectors.
• Regional development and value chain integration are critical for economic transformation.

Conclusion

Uganda's youthful and growing population presents both a challenge and an opportunity for inclusive growth. The report emphasizes the need for strategic, coordinated, and urgent action to create more and better jobs, especially in urban and industrial sectors, and to transform the agricultural sector. By doing so, Uganda can harness the demographic dividend, reduce poverty, and achieve long-term economic stability.