2023-09-17-美联储-企业减税与制造业劳动力份额下降_68页_5mb

Summary of "Corporate Tax Cuts and the Decline of the Manufacturing Labor Share"

The paper explores the relationship between corporate tax reductions and the decline in the manufacturing labor share, both in the U.S. and across OECD countries. Key findings include:

• A strong empirical link is established between corporate taxation and the manufacturing labor share, with tax cuts contributing 30-60% of the observed decline.
• Lower corporate tax rates increase market share for capital-intensive firms, reducing overall labor share through output reallocation.
• Cross-country data (1981–2007) shows a positive correlation (0.71) between tax cuts and labor share declines.
• U.S. state-level analysis confirms that states with larger corporate tax cuts experienced significant labor share declines in manufacturing.
• Changes in the joint distribution of labor intensities and value-added explain much of the labor share sensitivity to tax rates.
• A decline in corporate taxes from 40% to 20% in a simulation reduces the U.S. manufacturing labor share by 13.4 percentage points, aligning with data trends.
• Other factors (e.g., market structure, technology) contribute to labor share declines, but corporate taxation accounts for a substantial part.

Theoretical and empirical results support that corporate tax cuts play a significant role in the decline of the manufacturing labor share by reshaping market dynamics and firm-level production.