世界银行-热水上涨：气候变化对印尼渔业和沿海社区的影响（英）-2023-86页_19mb

Summary

Background
Indonesia's prosperity is deeply tied to its oceans, with fisheries contributing US$26.9 billion annually to the economy and supporting 7 million jobs. However, climate change poses significant threats, with rising ocean temperatures and sea-level rise affecting marine ecosystems and fisheries productivity.

Key Findings

• Climate Impacts: Indonesia’s oceans have warmed by approximately 0.18°C per decade, with projections indicating a rise of 1.39°C to 3.68°C by the end of the century. This warming shifts fish distributions, reduces maximum catch potential by 20-30% under high emissions, and decreases economic returns by 15-26% by 2050.
• Economic Effects: Climate change disproportionately affects small-scale fisheries, with economic losses higher under poor management. Stronger management can offset some impacts but not fully reverse declines.
• Coastal Communities: WPPs 713, 714, and 718 are most vulnerable due to high fishery dependence, inadequate adaptive capacity, and exposure to climate hazards.

Policy Recommendations

1. Ecosystem Protection: Expand MPAs, restore mangroves and seagrasses, and integrate climate resilience into spatial planning.
2. Fishery Management: Implement adaptive and dynamic measures, harvest control rules, and incentivize sustainable practices.
3. Community Resilience: Diversify livelihoods, enhance social protection, promote gender equity, and ensure community participation.
4. Finance: Explore blue bonds, impact funds, and blended finance to support adaptation actions.

Conclusion
Indonesia must adopt an integrated approach combining ecosystem conservation, adaptive management, and community-driven strategies to build climate resilience in its fisheries and coastal communities, ensuring economic and food security despite climate challenges.