2026-06-05-莱坊-Brisbane_CBD_Office_Market_May_2026_10页_1mb

报告摘要

Prime Vacancy: Increased to 10% in January 2026 due to new supply entering the market in 2025, which outweighed net absorption. However, with no new supply in 2026, vacancy is expected to recover quickly.
Total Vacancy: Rose to 11.8% in January 2026 from 10.7% in July 2025. It is forecast to fall to 10.4% by January 2027 and continue to decline, potentially falling below 10% in 2028.
Net Absorption CY25: Reached 37,480 sqm, the strongest in Australia's major office markets. Prime space accounted for 53,476 sqm, while secondary space saw a decline of 1,564 sqm in H2 2025.
Rental Growth: Prime gross effective rents grew by 7.1% year-on-year, with a 5.7% average growth over the past five years. This growth is expected to remain high through 2030 due to limited supply and strong demand.
Yields: Prime yields remained stable at 6.0%–8.25%, with a median of 7.25%. Secondary yields also stayed stable at 7.75%–9.00%, with a median of 8.50%.

Inflation and Interest Rates: Inflationary pressures resurfaced in 2026 due to global events, including the Middle East conflict, leading to higher petrol prices and housing costs. The RBA raised interest rates three times in 2026, taking the cash rate to 4.35%, and is expected to remain stable through 2027.
Population Growth: Queensland's population growth slowed to 1.7% in the year to September 2025, but continued to support economic activity and office demand. Net overseas migration remains a significant driver.
Workforce Growth: Brisbane's office workforce growth is forecast to remain higher than other Southern cities, averaging 1.8% per annum through 2030. This is attributed to a strong economy and infrastructure pipeline.

New Supply: A total of 90,000 sqm of new supply entered the market in 2025, the first major supply since 2022. No new supply is expected until 2027, when refurbished space will become available.
Major Refurbishments: Several major refurbishment projects are expected to come online in 2027, including 450 Queen St and 150 Charlotte St, which will provide A-grade space.
Tenant Activity: The Professional Services sector remains the largest tenant group, accounting for 32% of total leasing activity. Legal, architecture, and engineering services are key contributors. Government leasing activity also remains active, with 18% of total take-up.
Tenant Renewals: Renewals are increasing due to the difficulty in finding suitable alternatives and the cost of new fitouts. Tenants are deferring larger moves to 2030-2032.

Prime Rents: Prime gross effective rents increased by 7.1% year-on-year, with effective rent growth at 8.8%. Premium rents are 6.1% higher year-on-year, while A-grade rents are beginning to close the gap with Premium.
Secondary Rents: Secondary gross face rents are at $809/sqm, with a 4.4% annual increase. Incentives have fallen to 39%, supporting effective rent growth of 5.2%. Quality B-grade buildings with recent capital investment are expected to outperform those without.

Investor Sentiment: Investor interest is steady, with a widening pool of buyers analyzing the market. However, transaction momentum has been modest, with most activity focused on local buyers and private investors.
Sales Activity: Major sales have been completed or under contract, including 150 Charlotte St, 60 Albert St, and 126 Margaret St. Larger assets are more likely to be transacted off-market or via soft campaigns.
Transaction Momentum: Despite increased buyer activity, the market has not seen a significant shift in yields due to the higher cost of capital and risk pricing.

Vacancy Reduction: With no new supply in 2026 and ongoing net absorption, vacancy is expected to fall to 10.4% by the end of the year. Prime vacancy is forecast to drop below 10% in 2028.
Rental Growth: Rent growth is expected to remain high through 2030, driven by limited supply and strong demand, especially in the upper grades.
Refurbishment Impact: Refurbished space in 2027 will add to supply but will not significantly impact the market until late 2028.

Supply: Limited in 2026, with the next major supply expected in 2027.
Demand: Strong and concentrated in prime space, with professional services and government sectors leading.
Rental Growth: Expected to remain high due to limited supply and strong tenant demand.
Yields: Stable, with potential for slight softening due to higher cost of capital.
Investor Activity: Local and private investors are active, but transaction momentum is slow due to market uncertainty.

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