2022-09-27-莱坊-Brisbane_CBD_Office_Market_September_2022_10页_8mb

报告摘要

Brisbane CBD Office Market Summary - September 2022

Core Content

The Brisbane CBD office market has shown resilience and continued demand despite a slowdown in the capital market due to higher funding costs. The focus in Australia has shifted from maintaining economic growth during the pandemic to controlling inflation and normalizing monetary policy with a soft landing. This shift has influenced investment activity, with yields softening by 10-15bps and the market adjusting to a more cautious stance.

Market Trends

Vacancy Rates: Total vacancy in the CBD decreased from 15.4% to 14.0% in July 2022, primarily due to the withdrawal of stock and strong net absorption. The prime vacancy rate is at 14.3%, while secondary stands at 13.5%. The vacancy rate is expected to fall further to around 10.5% by mid-2024.
Net Absorption: Net absorption for the first half of 2022 was 46,040sqm, driven by strong tenant activity and pre-commitments. It is forecast to remain positive but at more modest levels in the next three years.
Supply Dynamics: New supply is expected to be limited until late 2024, with the next phase of development under construction and due for delivery from late 2024. Refurbished space and backfill stock will be the main sources of supply in the interim.

Rent Growth

Prime Face Rent: Increased by 3.6% yoy to $816/sqm, with incentives at 41.5% and effective rent growth at 1.8% yoy.
Premium and A Grade Rents: Premium rents have accelerated by 3.3% in the past quarter and 3.8% yoy, while A grade rents increased by 1.6% in the quarter and 3.7% yoy. There is a trend toward greater stratification in rents due to tenant demand for upgraded and amenity-rich spaces.
Secondary Face Rent: Grew by 7.1% yoy to $660/sqm, with incentives remaining high at 42%. Secondary yields are expected to moderate in early 2023 to the range of 3.0–4.5% p.a.

Tenant Activity

Professional Services Dominance: The professional services sector, particularly legal and accounting services, led the leasing activity, with 53% of take-up in Q2 2022.
Pre-Commitments: Major tenants such as Boeing, Deloitte, and Minter Ellison have pre-committed to new developments, indicating a strong focus on future workplace needs. Other notable pre-commits include those from BHP, ANZ, and Allens.
SME and Resources Sector: Ongoing SME activity and expansion in the resources sector, especially in coal and LNG, are expected to support net absorption.

Investment Climate

Sales Activity: Sales activity in the Brisbane CBD rebounded in 2021 and continued into early 2022, reaching over $500 million in settlements. However, the pace has slowed due to higher funding costs and bond market volatility.
Yield Trends: Prime yields have softened by 10-15bps to a range of 4.85%–6.0%, while secondary yields have also softened slightly to 6.0%–7.0%. The core market yield for 205 North Quay was 4.50%.
Market Confidence: Despite the slowdown, confidence in the market remains, with both core and value-add assets being sought by investors.

Economic Context

Queensland Growth: Queensland experienced strong economic growth in 2021, with GDP forecast to grow at 6.02% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022. The unemployment rate is at a 13+ year low of 3.8%.
Migration and Infrastructure: Strong migration inflows and significant infrastructure investment, such as the Cross River Rail and Brisbane Metro projects, are setting the city up for future growth.

Key Insights

The market is primed for a sustained reduction in vacancy rates due to strong demand and limited supply until late 2024.
The changing cost of funds and bond market volatility have impacted investment activity, leading to a more cautious approach.
The focus on workplace evolution and tenant confidence in upgraded spaces is likely to drive new developments and major refurbishments in the medium term.