2024-05-23-莱坊-Brisbane_CBD_Office_Market_April_2024_10页_1mb

报告摘要

Brisbane CBD office market benefits from strong tenant demand, driving rental growth despite subdued investment activity.
Total vacancy in the CBD increased slightly to 11.7% (from 11.6% in July 2023), recently falling from a peak of 15.4%.
Prime net absorption for CY2023 reached 58,706 sqm, with net supply in 2024 expected to be minimal.

High-quality space is in strong demand, with tenants booking ahead and seeking longer tenancies (e.g., 35-40 years).
Key tenant sectors included Professional, Scientific & Technical services and Government (State government in 2023, Federal expected 2024).
Large tenancies (10,000 sqm+) and mid-sized (5,000-10,000 sqm) represent a significant portion of leasing activity.
Despite a slight net absorption drop in H2 2023 due to stock withdrawal, vacancy continues falling due to sustained demand and no new supply.
Premium and upper A grade space continue to drive strong rental growth.

Prime gross effective rent reached $907/sqm, up 6.3% (12 months to Apr 2024).
Prime prime yields softened further by 20bps, reaching 7.05%, down 175bps from cycle start.
Prime face rents are expected to increase by 5.7% over CY2024 but may moderate in 2025 due to economic uncertainty.
Secondary market yields also softened, from 8.25% to a further 25bps. Secondary rents increased 9.0% annually. The gap between prime and secondary rents is increasing in the medium term.

A very limited pipeline of new supply (minimal new construction expected pre-2026).
Existing supply is dominated by refurbishment, with several key assets scheduled for refurbishment/exchange (e.g., 70 Eagle St, 140 Elizabeth St, 41 George St, 360 Queen St).
Development hurdles remain high due to cost, timelines, and lower yields relative to finance costs.
Future supply (2026-2028) remains uncertain.

Queensland population growth remains strong (2.7% annualized to Sept 2023), fueled by interstate migration, with Queensland GSP growth expected to outpace the nation (3.2% by end 2024).
Queensland unemployment rate remains low (3.8% March 2024).
Aggregate office market demand is expected to moderate in 2024 but return to ~2% growth from 2025 onwards.

Investor demand remains cautious, partly due to historically high fixed income returns.
Core prime yields softened further. Book values gradually stepped down to align with purchaser expectations.
Transactions were driven by domestic entities/finance sources, excluding notable foreign investors.

Depends on economic conditions, particularly inflation reduction and cash rate policy.
Future supply timing and viability are highly uncertain.

The overall market is tightening, especially for prime grade, contiguous space.
Prime rents are expected to accelerate significantly from 2026 onwards due to lack of new supply.
Vacancy rates may decline further (to 7.8-9.0% by end-2025/2026).

展开完整摘要