2025-06-03-Jefferies-康姆斯科雷（SCOR）_模型更新-等待增长可持续地突破低个位数_10页_181kb

Model Update Summary: Comscore (SCOR)

Core Content

This document outlines an updated financial model for Comscore (SCOR), reflecting the company's 2Q and full-year 2025 guidance. The analysis highlights the company's performance and future outlook, including revenue and earnings expectations, while also addressing ESG considerations and investment risks.

Key Financial Estimates

• 2025 Revenue Estimate: $361M (down from $367M previously)
• 2025 Adj EPS Estimate: $4.00 (down from $4.15 previously)
• Price Target: $5.00 (a 3% increase from the current price of $4.86)
• Market Cap: $24.3M
• Float: 69.3%

Guidance Highlights

• 2025 Revenue: Expected to be near the low end of the initial guidance of $360M–$370M.
• Adj EBITDA Margins: Expected to remain at 12–15% for 2025.
• 2Q25 Revenue: Approximately flat compared to 2Q24 ($86M).
• Back Half of 2025: Management expects sequential acceleration in revenue growth.

Performance in 1Q25

• Content & Ad Measurement (85% of revenue): Grew by +1.0% y/y
  • Syndicated Audience: Declined by -1.7% y/y due to lower renewals in national TV and digital products
  • Local TV: Showed solid double-digit growth
  • Movies Business: Revenue growth of +2.6% y/y, indicating stable demand
• Research and Insight Solutions (15% of revenue): Declined by -11.5% y/y
  • The decline was largely in line with management's expectations, attributed to lower renewals and timing of custom digital product deliveries

Investment Thesis

• Industry Disruption: Accelerating, with continued market share gains in local TV measurement
• Growth Beyond Local TV: More challenging, but possible
• Price Targets:
  • Base Case: $5.00 (1.25x 2025E adj EPS of $4.00)
  • Upside Scenario: $6.75 (1.5x 2025E adj EPS of $4.50)
  • Downside Scenario: $0 (bankruptcy)

Revenue Growth Outlook

• 2025 Organic Revenue Growth: 2–4% y/y, with growth in Content & Ad Measurement and low single-digit growth in Research & Insights
• Cost Efficiency Initiatives: Implemented to improve performance
• 2025 Adj EPS: Expected to grow at 1.4% y/y to $4.00

Sustainability and ESG

• Key Issue: Employee Engagement, Diversity, and Inclusion
• Company's ESG Strategy: No quantitative targets have been published
• Question for Management: Why is there no published quantitative ESG strategy?

Catalysts for Growth

• Meaningful changes in US industry ad spend
• Large contract wins or client defections
• Product delivery ahead or behind schedule
• Material change in breakeven cash flow from operations

Risks

• Negative Risks:
  • Reduced industry ad spend
  • Increased competition
  • Inability to maintain positive free cash flow
• Positive Risks:
  • Accelerated product adoption
  • Faster realization of cost efficiencies

Analysts and Contact Information

• Surinder Thind, CFA: Equity Analyst, Jefferies, (415) 229-1515, sthind@jefferies.com
• Logan Schuh: Equity Associate, Jefferies, +1 (201) 685-6981, lschuh@jefferies.com

Rating and Price Target

• Current Rating: Hold
• Price Target: $5.00
• Expected Total Return:
  • Hold: ±15% over 12 months
  • Buy: ≥15% over 12 months
  • Underperform: ≤-10% over 12 months

Valuation Methodology

Jefferies uses a range of methodologies to assign price targets, including:

• Market risk and growth rate
• Revenue streams
• Discounted cash flow (DCF)
• EBITDA, EPS, and free cash flow (FCF)
• EV/EBITDA, P/E, and other valuation multiples

Investment Recommendation Record

• Buy: 60.45% of analyst recommendations
• Hold: 35.13% of analyst recommendations
• Underperform: 4.42% of analyst recommendations

Summary of Risks

• Currency Risk: Exchange rate fluctuations may impact returns
• Conflict of Interest: Jefferies may have financial relationships with companies covered in research
• Regulatory Compliance: Reports may not be suitable for all investors due to varying regulations

Conclusion

The company's performance in 2025 remains cautious, with revenue growth expected to be in the low-single-digits. The model update reflects a more conservative outlook due to a softer macroeconomic environment. The analysts reiterate a Hold rating, emphasizing the need for sustainable growth beyond low-single-digits before reconsidering the investment stance.