2025-06-15-Jefferies-霍尼韦尔国际（HON）_PAS投资者日_中长期实现中高个位数增长_但2027年后利润率释放_目标约29_15页_199kb

# Summary of Honeywell International (HON) Equity Research

Key Highlights:

• HON reaffirmed long-term M-HSD sales CAGR targets and a 29% margin goal by 2027, despite headwinds from OE mix and investments.
• Price target set at $240, representing a 7% upside from current price of $224.29, with a HOLD rating.
• Aerospace segment is a significant revenue driver, contributing ~40% of sales, with segments showing varied growth rates.
• Revenue growth driven by decoupled RMU business (10% of sales, 23% CAGR) and international defense expansion (>15% CAGR).
• Valuation based on EV/EBITDA, P/E, and FCF yield metrics, with risks including supply chain issues and macroeconomic headwinds.
• Long-term investment thesis focuses on aerospace and energy transition, with sustainability targets like carbon neutrality by 2035.

Company Overview:
Honeywell International is a global diversified manufacturer with key businesses in aerospace, defense, and energy. It is undergoing a spin-off into three parts: Aerospace, Automation, and Advanced Materials. The company has a strong presence in mechanical and electronic systems, with a broad customer base across 500+ platforms.

Financial Performance:

• Current market cap $146.2B, float 99.6%.
• 2025E revenue guidance includes ~10% organic growth for M-HSD, with segments like Commercial AM and Defense showing modest gains.
• EPS projected at $10.30 for 2025, with operating margins around 26% and expected to reach 29% long-term.
• Supply chain investments have supported output growth, but constraints persist.

Growth Drivers:

• Decoupled revenue from RMUs (retrofits, mods, upgrades) growing at 23% CAGR, contributing $1.5BB in sales with attractive margins.
• International defense sales expanding at >15% CAGR since 2019, fueled by increased defense budgets in countries like Germany, UK, Japan, and India.
• Long-term focus on sustainable technologies, including emissions control and digital solutions, aiming for 29% margins post-2027.

Valuation:

• Price target $240 (15.7x EV/EBITDA on 2026E EBITDA), reflecting a 13% premium to S&P average.
• Risk factors include delayed short-cycle business recovery due to supply chain and macroeconomic conditions.

Risks and Challenges:

• Headwinds from OE mix, investment costs, and slower revenue inflection.
• Macroeconomic risks, such as recession or trade disruptions, impacting short-cycle businesses.
• Competition and supply chain constraints remain ongoing concerns.