2003年-世界发展银行全球_Turkey___Poverty_and_Coping_After_Crises_Volume_1_Main_Report_102页_9mb

Summary of Turkey Poverty and Coping After Crises

Core Content

This report, Turkey Poverty and Coping After Crises (Volume I: Main Report), analyzes the impact of economic and financial crises on poverty and social protection in Turkey, focusing on the period from 1994 to 2001. The report is co-financed by the World Bank and the Government of Japan and includes both quantitative and qualitative data from a household survey conducted in 2001.

Main Findings

• Extreme Poverty: Remained largely unchanged since 1994, with a rate of about 2.5 percent, which is considered low by international standards.
• Urban Food Poverty: Increased since 1994, with nearly one-fifth of the urban population having consumption below the food poverty line.
• Inequality: Remained high and unchanged, with a vulnerability line (twice the food poverty line) indicating that 36.3 percent of the population was vulnerable in 1994.
• Coping Strategies: The poor increasingly relied on informal networks (relatives, neighbors, and hemseri) for assistance, but these networks were strained due to macroeconomic shocks.
• Informal Employment: Suffered significantly due to the crises, leading to reduced income and increased vulnerability.
• Education: Some poor families were forced to pull their children out of school due to lack of resources.
• Health Shocks: Major illnesses were the hardest for the poor to cope with, even after meeting basic food needs.
• Government Response: The Government initiated a Social Solidarity Fund (SYDTF) to provide back-to-school packs and winter assistance, but these were limited to single payments.

Key Methodological Issues

• Data Comparability: Comparisons between the 1994 HIES and the 2001 HCIS are problematic due to differences in methodology, sample size, and representativeness.
• Sample Discrepancy: The 2001 HCIS sample had a lower rural representation (21 percent) than the actual population (35 percent), which could affect the accuracy of rural poverty estimates.
• Recall Method: The HCIS used a recall method instead of written diaries, which may lead to underestimation of consumption and income due to "telescoping."
• Unit Value Prices: The HCIS did not collect unit value prices for individual items, which could lead to overestimation in less expensive areas and underestimation in major cities like Istanbul.
• Missing Data: Some individual data (age, gender) were missing for certain household members, but were imputed using sample averages.

Government and Policy Responses

• Social Risk Mitigation Project (SRMP): A US $500 million loan from the World Bank aimed to improve the social protection system and reduce poverty.
• Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT): The Government introduced CCTs to provide more systematic support to the poor.
• Expansion of Social Solidarity Fund (SYDTF): The SYDTF expanded its activities to include micro-projects and adult literacy efforts.
• Improved Poverty Monitoring: The Government plans to conduct more frequent household surveys to better understand and address poverty.

Macroeconomic Impact

• Earthquake (1999): Caused significant damage and economic disruption, especially in the Marmara region, with a 7.9 percent decline in GNP in the first quarter of 1999.
• Reconstruction and Recovery: Reconstruction efforts in 2000 led to a strong recovery, with GNP growth reaching 7.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2000.
• Financial Crisis (2000-2001): The crisis led to a severe recession, with GNP declining by 12.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2001.
• Employment Impact: Unemployment increased significantly, especially in agriculture and construction, with over 500,000 jobs lost in construction alone.
• Informal Employment: Suffered more than formal employment, as the poor relied heavily on it.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The report concludes that while extreme poverty remains low, urban poverty has increased, and inequality remains high. It recommends:

• Resuming broad-based economic growth to reverse poverty trends.
• Implementing conditional cash transfers to counteract negative coping strategies.
• Expanding job opportunities through micro-projects and community development.
• Improving targeting and coverage of the extreme poor.
• Instituting regular poverty monitoring through household surveys and the development of a poverty map.

Key Contributors

• Vice President: Johannes Linn (ECAVP)
• Country Director: Ajay Chhibber (ECCU6)
• Sector Director: Annette Dixon (ECSHD)
• Sector Manager: Michal Rutkowski (ECSHD)
• Team Members: Jeanine Braithwaite (Team Leader), John Innes, Jennifer Manghinang, Mathew Verghis, Diane Steele, Ayge Ayata, Sencer Ayata, Tahire Erman, Kivilcim Ozcan, Y. Ziya Ozcan (Consultants)

Additional Notes

• The World Bank will publish the questionnaire, data document, and data on its website.
• The 2001 HCIS was conducted by independent consultants due to logistical constraints.
• The report acknowledges the limitations of the data and emphasizes the importance of future comprehensive household surveys for accurate poverty analysis.