2024-01-28-世界银行-海湾经济更新_2023年秋季_结构改革和转变社会规范以提高妇女劳动力参与度（英）_60页_1mb

Gulf Economic Update: Structural Reforms and Shifting Social Norms to Increase Women's Labor Force Participation

Executive Summary:

• Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economic growth slowed to 1% in 2023 due to oil production cuts by OPEC+, global economic challenges, and the conflict in the Middle East.
• Non-oil sectors continued to grow robustly (4.3% in 2023) supported by private consumption, investments, and structural reforms.
• Inflation moderated to 2.8% in 2023, aided by a strong U.S. dollar and cheap commodity prices.
• Public debt remains stable or declining in most GCC countries, reflecting fiscal consolidation efforts.

Special Focus: Saudi Arabia’s Female Labor Force Participation

• Female labor force participation in Saudi Arabia surged from 17.4% in 2017 to 36% in 2023, driven by:
  • Legal reforms: Elimination of guardianship requirements, expanded maternity leave, and protection against gender-based discrimination.
  • Enabling policies: New childcare programs, flexible work opportunities (e.g., remote work), and targeted training for women.
  • Social norm shifts: Misaligned beliefs about societal acceptance of women working were corrected, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which created labor demand shocks.
• Key findings:
  • The transformation was catalyzed by a combination of policy reforms, an enabling environment, rapid decoupling of oil and non-oil sectors, and a labor demand surge post-COVID.
  • Saudi women entered lower-paid jobs but achieved high employment rates, with over 38% of the private sector workforce being women.

Outlook and Risks:

• Economic outlook for GCC: Growth projected at 1% in 2023, rising to 3.6% in 2024, supported by continued diversification and fiscal flexibility.
• Inflation: Expected to remain low (2.8% in 2023), but monetary tightening risks constraints on non-oil growth.
• Key risks: Geopolitical instability, prolonged conflict in the Middle East, volatile oil prices, and potential strain on fiscal balances if oil revenues decline.

Annex Summaries:

• GCC Summary Statistics (2019–2024): Provides trends in GDP growth, fiscal balances, and external accounts.
• Country-Specific Tables: Detailed economic indicators for Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, highlighting divergent fiscal and growth trajectories.

Key Takeaways:

• GCC countries are diversifying economies through structural reforms and private sector growth.
• Saudi Arabia’s case demonstrates how policy, social change, and external shocks can accelerate female labor force participation.
• Challenges remain in sustaining growth, managing debt, and addressing social misconceptions.