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Nepal Country Program Evaluation Summary

1. Evaluation Purpose and Audience

This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) assesses the performance of the World Bank Group's support to Nepal between fiscal years 2014 and 2023. It evaluates how the Bank Group adapted its strategies to address Nepal's long-term development challenges, including political and institutional reforms, the shift to federalism, and responses to natural disasters and the pandemic.

The evaluation focuses on three key thematic areas: resilience to natural disasters, federalism, and jobs and private sector development. It aims to provide lessons for future Bank Group engagement, particularly the next Country Partnership Framework (CPF), due in 2024. The findings are also relevant to other countries emerging from conflict or facing similar development constraints. The primary audience includes the Bank Group's Board of Executive Directors, staff and management working with Nepal, and the government of Nepal. It may also interest broader stakeholders such as civil society, the private sector, and research organizations.

2. Background and Country Context

2.1 Geography and Economy

• Nepal is a lower-middle-income country with a population of 30 million, landlocked between China and India.
• Per capita GNI is $1,220 (2021), placing it behind all South Asian countries except Afghanistan.
• GDP growth has averaged 4% over the past decade, driven by remittances from labor migration.
• Remittances account for 24% of GDP and have increased significantly since 2000, especially during the civil war.
• The industrial base has declined from 14% to 12% of GDP, while agriculture, forestry, and fisheries account for 21% of GDP and two-thirds of employment.

2.2 Development Progress

• Nepal has made steady progress in development indicators, including increased electricity and internet access.
• Primary school enrollment is near universal, and gender parity in education has been achieved.
• Infant mortality has decreased from 32 per 1,000 live births in 2013 to 23 in 2023.
• However, Nepal's Human Capital Index score is 0.50, placing it 109th out of 174 countries.
• Stunting, low weight for height, and anemia remain prevalent among children.
• Gender disparities persist, with lower scores in economic participation, health, and education.

2.3 Poverty and Migration

• Poverty has declined from 46% in 1996 to 15% in 2011, but data since 2011 is limited.
• Poverty is higher in rural and mountainous areas.
• Migration-based economic model has reduced poverty but contributed to a low-growth trap.
• Remittances have not translated into sustained growth or job creation.

2.4 Political and Institutional Reforms

• Nepal transitioned from monarchy to republic and from a unitary to a federal system.
• The 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement initiated the process of federalism.
• The 2015 earthquake played a pivotal role in resolving the political stalemate and led to the adoption of the new constitution in 100 days.
• The 2015 constitution faced legitimacy challenges, particularly regarding the representation of the Madhesi population.

3. Challenges and Opportunities

3.1 Development Challenges

• Nepal is highly vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change.
• Poorer households, those in remote areas, and subsistence farmers face the highest risks.
• The country is exposed to geopolitical tensions between India and China, which affect its economic policies and energy exports.
• Structural factors such as weak institutions, low public investment, and underinvestment in human capital hinder development.
• Weak governance and institutional capacity remain key obstacles.

3.2 Opportunities for Growth

• A new development model is needed to escape the low-growth trap.
• Nepal has significant potential in hydropower and forestry, which could drive economic growth and investment.
• Infrastructure gaps in transport and energy are major constraints to private sector competitiveness.
• Improving governance, regulatory environments, and public administration is crucial for sustainable growth.
• The shift to fiscal federalism and improved disaster risk management can enhance resilience and service delivery.

4. World Bank Group Engagement

4.1 Strategic Objectives

• The Bank Group's strategic focus in Nepal has remained consistent, emphasizing growth and job creation, resilience, and governance.
• The FY14–18 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) and FY19–23 Country Partnership Framework (CPF) both prioritize these areas, with increasing emphasis on climate resilience and fiscal federalism.

4.2 Key Thematic Areas

• Resilience to natural disasters and health shocks: Increased focus post-earthquake and during the pandemic.
• Federalism: The CPF emphasized fiscal federalism, resource transfers to subnational levels, and strengthening institutions.
• Jobs and private sector development: The CPF focused on private sector-led growth and job creation, particularly in agriculture, forestry, and green sectors.
• Human development: Emphasis on education, health, and social protection, especially for marginalized groups.

4.3 World Bank Financing

• World Bank financing increased significantly over the evaluation period.
• Most funding came from IDA performance-based allocations and special windows.
• In FY15–17, $1.2 billion was committed, including $300 million for post-earthquake recovery.
• In FY18–20, Nepal accessed approximately $2.09 billion, with a notable increase in development policy financing (DPF) and Program-for-Results (PforR) operations.
• The Bank Group has supported large-scale investment projects in transport, digital connectivity, and earthquake housing reconstruction.

4.4 Policy-Based Lending

• The Bank Group expanded its use of policy-based lending, including DPOs and PforR.
• Four DPO series were approved, focusing on the financial sector, fiscal federalism, and disaster risk management.
• The Green, Resilient, and Inclusive Development (GRID) narrative became central to the Bank's approach, emphasizing private sector investment in green and inclusive growth.

5. Key Findings

• Adaptive Relevance: The Bank Group has shown adaptability in response to changing conditions, including the 2015 earthquakes and the pandemic.
• Federalism: The shift to federalism required significant institutional reforms, and the CPF focused on strengthening fiscal federalism and subnational governance.
• Resilience: The Bank Group has increasingly emphasized disaster risk management and social protection, especially in the context of climate change.
• Private Sector Development: There is a growing recognition of the need to promote private sector-led growth and job creation.
• Human Capital: Investments in education and health have improved access and equity, but human capital remains a major challenge.
• Migration Model: While remittances have driven consumption and tax revenue, they have not led to sustainable growth or job creation.
• Infrastructure Gaps: Weak infrastructure in transport and energy continues to hinder private sector competitiveness and growth.

6. Conclusion

The World Bank Group's support to Nepal has been instrumental in addressing the country's development challenges, particularly in the context of federalism, natural disaster resilience, and private sector development. However, challenges such as the low-growth trap, weak institutions, and continued social exclusion remain. Future engagement should focus on restructuring public investment, enhancing human capital, and promoting inclusive and resilient growth through a more integrated and adaptive approach.