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Ethiopia Country Program Evaluation Summary

1. Core Content

This Approach Paper outlines the World Bank Group Country Program Evaluation (CPE) for Ethiopia, covering fiscal years (FY) 13–23. The evaluation aims to assess the effectiveness of the Bank Group's support in addressing Ethiopia's development challenges, adapting to political and economic changes, and informing the next Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for FY25.

2. Main Development Context

2.1 Demographics and Geography

• Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa, with over 115 million people.
• It is home to 86 ethnic groups and 90 spoken languages.
• Over 80% of the population resides in rural areas.
• A landlocked nation in the Horn of Africa, bordering six fragile countries.

2.2 Political and Economic Transition

• The 1991 military regime overthrow led to a federal system dominated by the Tigray People's Liberation Front.
• The country has remained classified as an authoritarian regime by the Economist Intelligence Unit.
• Political instability, including contested elections in 2005 and 2015, and protests from 2014 to 2018, led to the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and the rise of Abiy Ahmed Ali in 2018.
• Abiy Ahmed Ali introduced Homegrown Economic Reform to address the shortcomings of the state-led model, aiming to promote private sector growth and reduce macroeconomic imbalances.

2.3 Economic Growth and Challenges

• Ethiopia has experienced rapid economic growth (8.5% average from 2012), but growth has slowed recently.
• Agriculture has declined in its contribution to GDP, while services and construction have become more dominant.
• Productivity has declined, and private sector development has been limited due to financial repression, exchange rate misalignment, and weak infrastructure.
• Climate change and drought have increased vulnerability, especially in rural and pastoral areas, with limited irrigation coverage and reliance on hydropower.

2.4 Poverty and Human Development

• Poverty reduction has stalled due to conflict, drought, and inflation.
• Human development has improved significantly but remains low, with the Human Development Index (HDI) at 0.498 in 2021 (still in the low category).
• The Human Capital Index (HCI) is 0.38, indicating a child born today will achieve only 38% of their potential.
• Key achievements include a halving of child mortality, quadrupling of primary school enrollment, and doubling of clean water access.

3. Key Development Constraints

• Unsustainable development model: Overreliance on public investment and financial repression led to macroeconomic imbalances and reduced private sector participation.
• Weak business environment: Poor infrastructure, regulatory burdens, and limited access to credit hindered private sector growth and competitiveness.
• Climate vulnerability: High exposure to drought, with limited irrigation and reliance on hydropower that is susceptible to climate shocks.
• Conflict and fragility: Political tensions, ethnic-based conflicts, and internal displacement have severely impacted development outcomes and economic stability.
• Low human development: Despite progress, education, health, and gender gaps persist, with rural areas lagging behind urban regions.

4. Evolution of World Bank Group Strategy

4.1 Strategic Documents

• The Bank Group's strategy for Ethiopia was guided by the CPS (FY13–16) and CPF (FY18–22).
• The CPS supported GTP I (2009–15), aiming for middle-income status by 2023.
• The CPF supported GTP II (2015–20), with a focus on private sector growth and sustainable development.

4.2 Strategic Pillars

• First Pillar: Competitiveness and employment.
• Second Pillar: Resilience and reduced vulnerabilities.
• Cross-cutting issues: Gender and climate change were integrated into strategies.

4.3 Adaptation to Challenges

• The spatial lens was introduced in the CPF to promote inclusive growth.
• In response to the north conflict (2020–22), the CPF shifted toward a people-centric approach, prioritizing basic services, food security, and vulnerable populations.
• Budget support operations were suspended in conflict areas, and third-party implementation and monitoring were introduced.

5. World Bank Group Portfolio in Ethiopia

• Total financing over FY13–22: US$23.6 billion.
• IDA portfolio: 31 active projects (US$4.6 billion) and 57 new projects (US$16.6 billion).
• IFC investments: 25 projects totaling US$409 million.
• MIGA guarantees: 8 projects totaling US$125 million.
• Advisory services: US$730 million, with a significant increase in the second strategy period.

5.1 Sectoral Focus

• Top sectors: Social protection, public administration, and agriculture (almost half of total investment).
• Decrease in focus: Transportation and water and sanitation commitments declined after the first strategy period.
• Key areas: Land tenure, skills development, financial access, and green infrastructure in agriculture; exchange rate reforms and industrial zones in manufacturing.

6. Evaluation Questions

6.1 Question 1

• How relevant and adaptive was the Bank Group's strategy to Ethiopia's development needs and constraints over the evaluation period?
• Focus: Strategy coherence, adaptation to changing priorities, and implementation effectiveness.

6.2 Question 2

• How effective was the Bank Group in supporting Ethiopia's transition from a state-led model to one that emphasizes the private sector?
• Sub-questions:
  • Was the support relevant to structural transformation through agriculture, manufacturing, and services?
  • How effective was the support in increasing agricultural productivity through capacity development, land management, and market access?
  • How effective was the support in manufacturing and services through finance, regulation, SOE reforms, and industrial zones?

6.3 Question 3

• To what extent did the Bank Group help Ethiopia build climate resilience, especially in agriculture and land/water management?
• Focus: Impact of support on reducing vulnerability to climate shocks and improving adaptive capacity.