2021-06-06-牛津经济研究院-UK_London_s_economy_to_grow_21页_1mb

London Monitor Highlights: Economic Recovery and Outlook (June 2021)

Economic Growth

• GVA Forecast: London's Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to grow by 6.9% in 2021 and 5.7% in 2022, driven by easing lockdown restrictions and recovering business activity.
• Regional Disparities: Inner London is forecasted to see a -1.6% drop in workplace-based employment this year as government support schemes wind down, while outer London will experience faster growth due to a sharper post-pandemic decline.

Labor Market

• Employment Trends: London's resident employment increased by 14,200 in Q1 2021 compared to Q4 2020. However, workplace-based employment is projected to decline due to the furlough scheme unwinding.
• Unemployment: Claimant count unemployment rose by 3.4 percentage points year-on-year in April 2021, with boroughs like Haringey and Newham recording double-digit rates.

Real Estate

• House Prices: London property prices increased 1.0% in March 2021, outpacing the UK's 9.1% rise, boosted by extended stamp duty relief.
• Rental Market: London experienced a 0.3% decline in rents in April, reflecting reduced migration to the capital during the pandemic.

🇬🇧 Sector-Specific Updates

1. Construction: Q1 spending dropped 3.3% year-on-year but showed signs of recovery, with housing hardest hit.
2. Financial Services: Equity trading volumes fell in April, though consumer credit growth offset business lending declines.
3. Hospitality & Tourism: Visitor numbers remain 73% below pre-pandemic levels, with forecasts for a 66% increase by 2021 but still short of pandemic-era recovery.
4. Retail & Mobility: Restaurant bookings are 32% above pre-pandemic levels, and public transport usage (e.g., tube journeys) has modestly recovered.

Key Forecasts

• London's consumer spending is expected to grow 6.6% year-on-year by 2025, supported by relaxed restrictions and government stimulus.
• Visitor numbers and tourism activity are projected to stabilize by 2025, though recovery remains muted.

[
"The LONDON MONITOR report provides a comprehensive analysis of London's post-pandemic economic recovery, highlighting strong GVA growth forecasts for 2021 (6.9%) and sector-specific trends such as rising house prices, employment fluctuations, and tourism recovery. Outer London is projected to outperform inner London from 2022 onwards.",
"The labor market shows mixed results: employment rose year-on-year, but workplace-based employment is expected to drop due to the unwinding of furlough schemes. Unemployment rates vary significantly across boroughs, with inner London seeing the highest increases.",
"Real estate indicators reveal London's property market remained resilient, with house price growth outpacing the UK, while rentals declined due to migration patterns. Financial services experienced subdued trading volumes but noted growth in consumer credit and lending.",
"Tourism and hospitality continue to lag, with visitor numbers still far below pre-pandemic levels. Ongoing restrictions on business travel are expected to hurt London more than other cities during the recovery, delaying full normalization."
]