2025-06-17-Jefferies-电子游戏_Fortnitely第16卷_RBLX创下新纪录；更新行业模型_10页_557kb

Equity Research: USA Interactive Entertainment - June 17, 2025

Analysis Summary

• Roblox User Growth: Roblox reached a new record for concurrent users during a specific Saturday, hitting 16 million players in "Grow A Garden," surpassing Fortnite's previous peak. This sustained user activity, especially high during weekly updates focused push, is drawing attention. Investor focus may shift to assessing if these weekend highs can persist into July and what this implies for 3Q seasonality compared to prior years.
• Industry Projections: Based on updated models, expectations for 2025 have been lowered primarily by delaying GTA VI to 2026. However, the expected strong performance of the Nintendo Switch 2 supports a new industry revenue record anticipated for 2026, driven by the Switch 2 launch and the subsequent GTA VI release.
• Console Growth: Jefferies expects console (PS5/XBX/Series 2) growth to outpace PC growth in 2025 and 2026 (5% vs 2%). While overall industry growth marginally slows in the short term, the improved title slate (including GTA VI, RTX titles on Switch 2, Cyberpunk 2077/Borderlands 4) and platform momentum offset this, driving the expected record year in 2026.
• Switch 2 Launch: The Nintendo Switch 2 achieved an exceptional launch, selling over 3.5 million units in its first four days as the fastest-selling console ever. Initial eShop data highlights engagement, with strong performance for both proprietary titles (Mario Kart World) and third-party offerings like Cyberpunk 2077 and Borderlands 4.
• Borderlands 4: Microsoft's shooter maintains a $70 base price post pre-order live. A premium $100 Deluxe Edition includes DLC packs, and a $130 Super Deluxe Edition includes even more (two large story DLCs), along with cosmetic items.
• Valuations & Risks:
  • RBLX: Trading at 43x FY2 EV/EBITDA, above its historical 2-year average and recent lows, reflecting market optimism.
  • TTWO: Trading at 25x FY2 P/E, lower than its peak around GTA launches but still relatively high.
  • EA: Trading at ~16.5x FY2 P/E, edging back towards its 3-year average of 17x but down from 3-year peaks.
  • Market Risk: The gaming industry faces uncertainties including economic factors, spending patterns (flat Sensor Tower spending YTD), competition, and evolving platforms/genres.
  • Disclosure & Analyst Notes: Standard disclaimers and analyst certifications are included.
  • Coverage: Companies like Microsoft (MSFT: $479.14 - BUY Rating), Nintendo (NTDOY: $20.72, 7974 JP: ¥12,095 - BOTH BUY), Electronic Arts (EA: $151.10 - BUY), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO: $238.60 - BUY), Roblox (RBLX: $100.44 - HOLD), Sony (SONY: $26.09, 6758 JP: ¥3,720 - BOTH BUY), etc., are covered or analyzed.
  • Jefferies Ratings: Definitions include Buy (15%+ return potential), Hold (Return between -10% and +10%), Underperform (-10% or less return potential).
  • Game Release Schedule: Includes notable upcoming titles across platforms (PC, PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Switch/2) from key publishers.