卡内基国际和平基金会-选举、核武器与韩美同盟的未来（英文）-2020.10-11页_1mb

Summary of "Elections, Nukes, and the Future of the South Korea-U.S. Alliance"

Introduction

The 2020 South Korean National Assembly elections, where the Democratic Party of President Moon Jae-in secured a strong majority, masked deeper security policy tensions in the country. These tensions are centered on how to respond to North Korea's nuclear threat and concerns about the U.S. alliance, especially amid rising regional security challenges. While public support for Moon's government remained high due to its pandemic response, the election also highlighted a growing public and political interest in nuclear weapons, which could potentially challenge the ROK-U.S. alliance.

Key Security Policy Trends

Threat Perceptions

• South Koreans have been living with the reality of a nuclear-armed North Korea for over a decade.
• Public concern about North Korea's threat has remained high, with around 80% of South Koreans feeling "very" or "somewhat" threatened by it.
• However, relative threat perception has shifted in recent years. After 2016, China and Japan emerged as perceived threats, with China being the top concern since 2018.
• This shift reflects improved inter-Korean relations and renewed U.S.-North Korea diplomacy, but also rising anxiety about regional security dynamics.

ROK-U.S. Alliance

• Public support for the ROK-U.S. alliance remains strong, with over 90% of South Koreans backing it in recent polls.
• Despite tensions over burden-sharing, the majority still see the alliance as mutually beneficial.
• Concerns about U.S. troop withdrawal or reduced nuclear deterrence could affect confidence in the alliance.
• There is a growing perception that South Korea and the U.S. may have divergent security objectives, which could weaken the alliance over time.

Support for Nuclear Weapons

• A majority of South Koreans (between 50% and 70%) support having nuclear weapons, either through U.S. re-stationing or an independent arsenal.
• This support has not always been consistent and can vary based on the timing and framing of the questions.
• A 2019 poll suggested that even in a unified Korea, 60% of respondents supported nuclear weapons, indicating a broad public sentiment.

Elite Politics and Nuclear Weapons

• The mainstreaming of nuclear support among political parties, especially centrist and conservative ones, is a concerning trend.
• The Liberty Korea Party (2017) and the United Future Party (2020) have explicitly called for U.S. nuclear redeployment and "nuclear sharing" agreements.
• The People's Party also shifted toward advocating a NATO-style nuclear sharing system.
• The ruling Democratic Party has not supported nuclear weapons, and its members have criticized such discussions as emotional and populist.
• These political stances suggest that while nuclear support is widespread, it may not yet translate into concrete policy.

Potential Impacts of the 2020 U.S. Election

A Second Trump Term

• A second Trump administration is likely to increase burden-sharing demands, which could strain the ROK-U.S. alliance.
• Trump's approach to North Korea and his potential involvement in the China-U.S. rivalry may create policy divergence.
• Moon's administration has expressed frustration with the lack of progress on denuclearization and may seek to distance itself from Washington if Trump is re-elected.
• South Korean conservatives may push for nuclear weapons as a response to perceived U.S. security neglect.

A Biden Administration

• A Biden administration is expected to prioritize restoring credibility with allies and resolving burden-sharing disputes.
• However, his proposed shift in U.S. nuclear policy, focusing on deterrence only against nuclear threats, could be seen as weakening the extended deterrence commitment.
• This might lead to increased demands from South Korean conservatives for U.S. nuclear redeployment, complicating future negotiations.

Could South Korea Seek Nuclear Weapons?

• The alliance has withstood many challenges over the past 70 years, but growing regional security concerns and political shifts may change this.
• A scenario where South Korea formally requests U.S. nuclear weapons, only to be refused, could lead to the development of an independent nuclear program.
• Past examples, such as the secret nuclear request in 2016 and Park Chung-hee's nuclear program in the 1970s, show that such a move is not entirely unthinkable.
• The possibility of a nuclear South Korea is increasingly framed as a "when, not if" issue, depending on future developments in the alliance and regional security dynamics.

Conclusion

The 2020 election highlighted the deepening security tensions in South Korea, particularly regarding nuclear weapons and the U.S. alliance. While public support for nuclear arms remains strong, political parties are increasingly vocal about this issue. The future of the ROK-U.S. alliance will depend on how these tensions evolve, especially in light of U.S. policy changes and the potential for South Korea to pursue nuclear capabilities. The risk of a nuclear South Korea, though not highly likely, is becoming more plausible as the alliance faces new challenges and domestic pressures.