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Balochistan: The State Versus the Nation

Summary

Balochistan, the largest but least populous province of Pakistan, is gradually descending into anarchy due to the state's repressive policies. Since 2005, the Baloch nationalist movement has been violently suppressed by Pakistani security forces, leading to ethnic and sectarian violence. Despite military campaigns and attempts to discredit the movement, the insurgency has persisted, and the conflict has deepened. The central government's actions have not only failed to quell the unrest but have also weakened the social structures that could have contained radicalism, creating a power vacuum. A political solution is the only viable path to restore stability, as the nationalist movement is not unified and most Baloch people favor autonomy over independence.

Key Themes

• Baloch nationalism initially sought political autonomy within the federal framework, not full independence.
• The Pakistani military has been central to the conflict, often dismissing the movement as a relic of feudalism.
• The repression by security forces has radicalized the movement and fueled further violence.
• A majority of Baloch now supports greater autonomy, not independence.
• The state's failure to address grievances has led to the emergence of a more extreme form of nationalism.
• Security forces have lost control of their radical proxy groups, contributing to the escalation of violence.
• The Islamization of the province has not increased central control but instead fostered extremism.
• The UN and international community have expressed concern over the human rights violations in the region.

Finding a Way Out

• The nationalist parties should participate in the upcoming provincial elections to legitimize the provincial government.
• A legitimate government in Balochistan can restore local control, reduce violence, and advocate for the province on the federal level.
• The Pakistani security establishment must respect human rights by ending death squads, extrajudicial executions, and forced disappearances.
• They should disavow proxy groups and use legitimate authority to combat sectarian violence.
• The United Nations should establish a permanent observation mission to monitor the human rights situation and promote accountability.

Introduction

The conflict in Balochistan began in 2005, following the rape of a female doctor, Shazia Khalid, in Sui. This incident triggered attacks by the Bugti tribe on security forces, highlighting deep-seated grievances related to resource allocation, sovereignty, and cultural preservation. The military's failure to eliminate the insurgency and its continued repression have led to the province's increasing instability. The conflict has evolved from a struggle for autonomy to a more radical and violent movement, with the state's actions playing a key role in its escalation.

Dimensions of Baloch Nationalism

Baloch nationalism has a long history, with roots in the anticolonial movement and evolving over time. It encompasses a range of political aspirations, from full independence to greater autonomy within Pakistan. The term "Baloch nationalism" is misleading, as it reflects a complex mix of sociological, political, and historical developments. The movement has shifted from being primarily tribal-based to involving a broader middle-class segment of society, which has become a key force in the current nationalist movement.

The Actors

• Baloch Liberation Army (BLA): A clandestine group associated with the Marri tribe, led by Hyrbyair Marri. It advocates for the independence of a "greater" Balochistan.
• Baloch Republican Party: Led by Brahamdagh Bugti (in exile), it seeks independence and opposes political dialogue.
• Baloch Republican Army: Presumed to be the militant wing of the Baloch Republican Party.
• Baloch National Movement: Calls for independence and refuses to engage in the political process.
• National Party: A moderate, center-left party led by Abdul Malik Baloch, representing the middle class.
• Balochistan National Party: Led by Akhtar Mengal, it seeks more autonomy and recently called for a referendum on self-determination.
• Baloch Student Organization: A key training ground for nationalist leaders, with a faction aligned with the BLA now dominant.

The Beginnings of the Movement

Baloch nationalism has historical roots dating back to the late 19th century, but it gained momentum after the creation of Pakistan in 1947. The Baloch People's Liberation Front, led by Sher Mohammed Marri, laid the groundwork for future insurgencies. The 1973 insurgency, supported by the Marris and Mengals, was a response to Bhutto's rejection of nationalist demands and his suppression of the National Awami Party. The movement gradually shifted toward independence as the youth became more radicalized.

The Tribes and the Middle Class

The Baloch middle class, often educated outside the province, has become a significant force in the nationalist movement. This class has historically been marginalized in the military and government, but it now plays a central role in the political and social landscape. The movement has shifted from tribal to urban areas, with leaders emerging from districts like Kech, Panjgur, and Gwadar. The military's targeting of this class has only intensified the conflict and radicalized the movement.

Politics of the Conflict in Balochistan

The conflict in Balochistan has been shaped by political manipulation and repression. The military's interference in elections, such as the 2002 rigging, led to the rise of Islamist parties and the marginalization of nationalist groups. The 2008 elections were boycotted by nationalist parties, resulting in widespread fraud and the collapse of democratic institutions in the province. The central government's failure to address the root causes of the conflict has contributed to its escalation.

Election Rigging and Musharraf's Devolution Policy

• The 2002 elections were rigged, leading to the rise of the MMA and the marginalization of nationalist parties.
• Musharraf's devolution policy aimed to create local governments but was seen as an imposition of central control.
• The 2008 boycott of elections by nationalist parties led to a lack of political accountability and increased corruption.
• The 2011 electoral roll corrections revealed that 65% of Baloch voters were fake, highlighting the scale of electoral fraud.

The Fiction of Civilian Power

After Musharraf's downfall, the civilian government failed to address the conflict effectively. The new administration continued the military's repressive tactics, leading to further instability. The Boycott of elections by nationalist parties allowed the security establishment to consolidate power. The lack of political representation and the continued repression have made the Baloch movement increasingly radical.

Conclusion

The conflict in Balochistan is a result of the state's repressive policies and failure to address the province's legitimate demands. The movement has evolved from a struggle for autonomy to a more radical and violent one. A political solution is necessary to end the chaos, but the state's approach has only deepened the crisis. The involvement of the middle class and the shift in the movement's geography indicate that a new phase of the conflict is emerging, one that requires a different strategy from Islamabad.

Notes

• The BLA is estimated to have about 3,000 fighters.
• The National Party was previously in power but boycotted the 2008 elections.
• The Baloch National Movement was led by Ghulam Mohammed Baloch, who was killed in 2009.
• The 2002 elections were marked by significant fraud and manipulation.
• The 2008 boycott led to a lack of political accountability and increased corruption.
• The middle class is now the main force behind the nationalist movement.

About the Author

Frederic Grare is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He has written extensively on South Asian politics and security issues.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a global, independent policy research organization dedicated to advancing peace and security through analysis and engagement. It provides nonpartisan, objective analysis on international affairs, with a focus on the Middle East, South Asia, and other regions.