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Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Summary

Core Content

This report, authored by Norman Loayza, Pablo Fajnzylber, and César Calderón, presents an in-depth analysis of economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. It combines stylized facts, regression analysis, and growth forecasts to provide a comprehensive understanding of the region's economic performance and potential.

Main Stylized Facts

• Global and Regional Growth Trends: Since the 1960s, the global growth rate of GDP per capita has declined. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) have experienced relatively low growth, averaging 1.78% from 1961–2000, compared to 2.68% for industrialized countries.
• Decadal Performance:
  • The 1960s and 1970s saw relatively high growth in LAC, but this was followed by a sharp decline in the 1980s (a "lost decade").
  • The 1990s brought a modest recovery, though not all countries experienced growth rates exceeding earlier decades.
• Volatility: LAC has shown greater volatility in GDP per capita growth compared to other regions, especially during the 1980s and 1990s.
• Country-Level Variations:
  • Some countries, like Chile and Colombia, achieved better growth outcomes due to early reforms and macroeconomic stability.
  • Countries such as Argentina, Bolivia, and Peru saw recovery in the 1990s, but not all reached pre-1980s levels.
  • The Caribbean region showed mixed performance, with some countries like the Dominican Republic and Trinidad and Tobago recovering, while others like the Bahamas and Jamaica experienced declining growth trends.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: This region had a similar pattern to LAC, with a decline in the 1980s and a partial recovery in the 1990s, though growth remained weak.

Determinants of Growth

The report identifies several key determinants of economic growth, based on regression analysis and cross-country studies:

• Transitional Convergence: Poorer countries tend to grow faster than richer ones, all else being equal.
• Structural Policies and Institutions:
  • Human Capital: Education and literacy levels have a positive impact on growth.
  • Financial Development: Higher credit to the private sector and broader money supply (M2/GDP) are associated with growth.
  • Trade Openness: Increased exports and imports correlate positively with growth.
  • Governance: Civil liberties, political rights, and the rule of law have a positive effect.
• Infrastructure: Availability of telephones, roads, and energy per capita is positively correlated with growth.
• Stabilization Policies:
  • Inflation: High and volatile inflation rates are negatively associated with growth.
  • Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: Overvaluation of the real exchange rate and black market premiums are linked to negative growth impacts.
• External Conditions:
  • Terms of Trade Shocks: Positive changes in terms of trade indices support growth.
  • Capital Flows: Private capital flows and foreign direct investment have a positive effect on growth.

Growth Forecasts

• Future Growth under Realistic Expectations: Forecasts suggest that continued trends may lead to modest growth for the average LAC country, though performance varies widely.
• Future Growth under Sharp Reform: If countries implement significant structural and stabilization reforms, growth could be substantially higher, especially if they reach the top 25% of LAC or global performance.
• Growth Potential: The report highlights that progress in economic reform, particularly in structural policies and institutions, is critical for improving growth potential.

Key Questions Addressed

• What are the common trends and exceptions in economic growth across LAC countries?
• How do domestic policies and external conditions influence growth trajectories?
• Are apparent growth successes sustainable, or do they lead to future economic contractions?
• What are the most promising areas for policy reform to enhance future growth?

Conclusion

The study emphasizes the importance of structural reforms, macroeconomic stability, and good governance in driving economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. It underscores that while growth has been uneven across the region, there is potential for improvement through targeted policy interventions. The findings also suggest that the region's growth performance is not entirely unique and shares similarities with other developing regions, particularly in terms of convergence and the impact of external shocks.

Methodology and Data

• The analysis is based on a wide range of cross-country studies and empirical data from 1961–2000.
• Data are sourced from the World Bank and include GDP per capita growth, investment, saving, and various policy indicators.
• The report uses both descriptive statistics and econometric methods such as GMM, IV, and SUR to estimate the impact of different growth determinants.

References and Appendices

• The report references a number of influential studies in the field of economic growth, including those by De Gregorio, Easterly, and Barro.
• Appendices provide additional details on:
  • Solow growth accounting
  • Definitions and sources of variables used in regression analysis
  • Sample of countries
  • Country-specific growth explanations

This comprehensive analysis aims to contribute to the ongoing discourse on economic growth in the region by providing evidence-based insights and policy-oriented forecasts.