2016年-世界发展银行全球_Beyond_Commodities___The_Growth_Challenge_of_Latin_America_and_the_Caribbean_191页_4mb

报告摘要

Summary of Beyond Commodities: The Growth Challenge of Latin America and the Caribbean

Core Content

This report, Beyond Commodities: The Growth Challenge of Latin America and the Caribbean, analyzes the growth performance of the region over the past decade and identifies the key drivers of economic growth. It emphasizes the importance of understanding these drivers for future policy design, especially in light of changing external conditions and the need for continued domestic reforms.

Main Findings

Growth Convergence: Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) experienced a "decade of convergence" with high growth rates and a recovery from the global financial crisis. The region has narrowed the income gap with the United States, though it has not yet reached its levels.
Pro-Poor Growth: The recent growth has been especially pro-poor, with the incomes of the bottom 40 percent growing faster than the average. This shift indicates a more equitable distribution of growth benefits.
Role of External Conditions: High commodity prices and favorable international financial conditions significantly boosted growth in the region. These external factors were particularly important for net commodity exporters.
Policy Impact: Stabilization and structural policies played a crucial role in shaping growth outcomes. While stabilization-related variables had a less prominent role compared to previous studies, structural reforms remained a key driver.
Heterogeneity in Growth Performance: There is significant variation in growth performance across LAC countries. For instance, Chile's growth was previously attributed to structural reforms, but recent performance is more influenced by external conditions.
Public Spending Composition: The composition of public spending matters for growth. Government consumption can have a negative impact if it reflects inefficiencies or distortions, whereas investments in education and infrastructure positively contribute to growth.
Future Outlook: The study suggests that while external conditions have been beneficial, they are likely to change. Structural features are more controllable and have emerged as a robust determinant of growth.

Key Policies and Factors

Stabilization Policies: These include macroeconomic stability, such as inflation control and exchange rate management. Improved stabilization features would have benefited countries like Argentina, Ecuador, and Venezuela.
Structural Policies: These encompass education, infrastructure, financial development, and trade openness. Improvements in these areas could have significantly boosted GDP per capita in countries like Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.
Commodity Prices: The boom in international commodity prices played a major role in growth for many LAC countries, especially net exporters. However, the commodity super cycle has ended, and future growth will depend more on structural reforms.
Government Role: Governments can facilitate growth by maintaining a stable and predictable policy environment, supporting human and physical capital accumulation, and ensuring efficient public spending.

Methodology

The study uses dynamic panel data regressions to identify the determinants of growth.
A country-specific commodity export price index is employed to isolate the impact of commodity booms.
A benchmarking exercise is conducted to estimate the counterfactual GDP per capita that could be achieved with improved performance in key policy areas.

Policy Implications

Continued Reform: Structural reforms must continue to ensure sustainable growth, especially as external conditions become less favorable.
Focus on Pro-Poor Growth: Policies should aim to ensure that growth benefits are more evenly distributed.
Efficient Public Spending: Governments should prioritize investments in education and infrastructure over general consumption.
Stabilization and Predictability: Maintaining macroeconomic stability and predictable policies is essential for long-term growth.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while external conditions have played a significant role in LAC's recent growth, structural reforms and efficient public spending are more critical for future sustainable development. The region must adapt to a new normal and focus on policies that promote long-term growth and shared prosperity.

Key Authors

Jorge Thompson Araujo: Economic adviser in the Office of the Vice President, Latin America and the Caribbean.
Ekaterina Vostroknutova: Lead economist in the World Bank's Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region.
Markus Brueckner: Professor of Economics at the National University of Singapore.
Mateo Clavijo: Financial analyst in the World Bank's Finance and Markets Global Practice.
Konstantin M. Wacker: Assistant professor at Gutenberg University, Mainz.