20160718-穆迪服务-Credit_Outlook__Credit_Implications_Of_Current_Events_23页_1mb

报告摘要

CreditOutlook Summary (18 July 2016)

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of credit implications stemming from recent events in the corporate, infrastructure, bank, and sovereign sectors. It highlights both positive and negative impacts on credit ratings and financial health of various entities.

Main Points and Key Information

Corporates

Boeing and Embraer's KC-390 Partnership:
- Credit positive for both companies.
- The partnership enhances sales prospects for the KC-390 aircraft, which is a competitor to the C-130.
- Boeing will support KC-390 clients with aftermarket services, while Embraer gains access to a broader client network.
- Embraer has five letters of intent for 32 aircraft in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, and Portugal.
- Expected international certification in 2017 and first delivery to Brazilian Air Force in 2018.
AMC Entertainment's Acquisition of Odeon:
- Credit negative for AMC due to increased leverage, exposure to currency volatility, and higher execution risk.
- The acquisition is expected to raise AMC's debt/EBITDA ratio to 5.5x, up from 4.8x.
- However, AMC plans to reduce leverage back to below 5.25x over 18-24 months through organic growth and debt reduction.
- The deal increases AMC's geographic diversification and provides a platform for expanding European operations.
Acadia's Priory Acquisition Review:
- Credit negative for Acadia due to the UK CMA's review.
- The acquisition of Priory, a major UK mental healthcare provider, could lead to divestitures in certain markets.
- Synergy expectations are modest, and any delay is unlikely to have a material impact on credit metrics.
- Acadia has until 21 July to submit a plan to address CMA concerns.

Infrastructure

Southern Company's Pipeline Acquisition:
- Credit positive for Southern Company as the acquisition is primarily funded by equity.
- The pipeline provides stable cash flow and diversifies Southern's exposure into the natural gas sector.
- The acquisition will not significantly increase the parent company's debt ratio.
US Airways and FAA Reauthorization Bill:
- Credit positive for US airports due to the FAA funding extension through September 2017.
- The bill includes $9.91 billion for 2016 and $10.03 billion for 2017, ensuring continuity of funding.
- Airport Improvement Program (AIP) grants will benefit capital projects, improving liquidity and reducing debt ratios.
- The outlook for the US airport industry is positive due to expected enplanement growth and increased airline capacity.
Brazil's Compensation to Eletrobras Subsidiary Chesf:
- Credit positive for Chesf as it receives BRL5.1 billion in indemnification from the Brazilian government.
- This compensation increases EBITDA by BRL1 billion and FFO by BRL700-BRL800 million.
- Additional inflation and interest adjustments could increase the total compensation to BRL8.7 billion.
- The impact will be reflected in Eletrobras' consolidated financials.
China Merchants Holdings International's Profit Warning:
- Credit negative due to a significant loss from its affiliate CIMC and the absence of a one-off gain.
- CIMC's loss is driven by a 70% profit decline in container manufacturing and a RMB1.2 billion provision from a cancelled acquisition.
- CMHI's adjusted fund from operations to debt ratio is expected to fall below the tolerance level for its current rating.

Banks

Brazil's FGTS Collateral Rule:
- Credit positive for Brazilian banks as the new rule allows employees to use FGTS accounts to guarantee payroll loans.
- This reduces loan loss risk and is expected to increase the volume of private-sector payroll loans.
- Interest rates on these loans are expected to decline from 44% to around 28%, aligning with public-sector rates.
- Major banks like Banco do Brasil, Caixa Econômica Federal, and Itaú Unibanco are best positioned to benefit from this change.
Costa Rican Banks' Loan Delinquencies:
- Credit negative due to rising loan delinquencies linked to local currency depreciation.
- This could negatively impact bank balance sheets and credit quality.
EU Court's Mortgage Interest Rate Floor Statement:
- Credit positive for Spanish banks as the EU court's statement supports mortgage interest rate floors.
- This provides stability to the mortgage market and reduces credit risk.
Bank of Ireland's Capital Position:
- Credit negative due to capital erosion from Brexit-related pension deficits.
- The company's capital position is under pressure as it faces increased liabilities from pension schemes.
Kazakhstan's Base Rate Cut:
- Credit positive for banks as the unexpected base rate cut lowers borrowing costs.
- This is expected to improve lending conditions and credit quality for financial institutions.

Sovereigns

Ireland's Economic Performance:
- Credit positive as the country's economy and public finances outperform expectations.
- This suggests improved fiscal health and resilience against external shocks.

Sub-sovereigns

Japan's Regional and Local Governments:
- Credit positive due to an eight-year high in tax revenue.
- This indicates stronger fiscal capacity and improved creditworthiness at the sub-national level.

Recent Updates

Articles from the previous week's Credit Outlook are available.
A link to the Weekly Market Outlook is provided, containing Moody's Analytics' market analysis.