2025-05-15-Jefferies-BGE（BGEOLN）_2025年第一季度潜在趋势_股本回报率情况保持不变_8页_130kb

Summary of Equity Research Report: Lion Finance Group PLC (BGEO LN) Q1 2025

Flash Note

• Rating: BUY with a price target of €5,900
• Current Price: €6,750
• Market Cap: €3.0B

Performance Highlights

• Business momentum continued with loan growth +23% YoY and net income
• Net interest income rose +3% QoQ but declined YoY due to higher liquidity
• Return on Assets Equity (ROAE) remains intact, and book value per share increased by +30% YoY
• Credit performance improved with a cost of risk of 0.2% in the quarter
• Revenue: Non-interest income fell -20% QoQ but increased +43% YoY due to accounting adjustments and seasonal factors

Growth and Capital

• Loan growth in Georgia +18% YoY constant FX, driven by consumer and SME banking
• CET1 ratio at 16.4%, above requirements, with strong capital buffer
• CET1 decreased QoQ due to business growth and capital distribution, but excess capital remains significant

Valuation and Risks

• Valued using a Gordon Growth Model (GGM) with assumed 3% growth rate and 15% cost of equity
• Neutral to positive valuation suggests upside given price target
• Key risks: Operational execution challenges, macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty in operating regions, potential margin deterioration

Overall Recommendation
Balanced view with a BUY rating based on strong underlying trends and capital position, but caution advised due to external risks.