2017年-德勤全球_Deloitte_and_WindEurope_90页_5mb

Summary of Wind Energy's Impact on Jobs and the EU Economy

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic impact of the wind energy industry on the European Union (EU) from 2011 to 2016. It highlights the role of wind energy in driving economic growth, creating jobs, and reducing fossil fuel dependence, while also addressing the challenges posed by international competition and local content requirements. The study is based on the SNA93 methodology and Deloitte's analytical framework, and it includes insights from over 400 companies operating in the wind energy sector.

Main Viewpoints

• Wind Energy as an Industrial Sector: Wind energy has evolved from a niche technology to a significant industrial sector, contributing to the EU's economy and providing clean, competitive, and reliable energy.
• Economic Contribution: In 2016, the wind energy industry contributed €36.1bn to the EU's GDP, representing 0.26% of the total. This includes both direct and indirect contributions.
• Job Creation: The wind energy industry supported 262,712 jobs in the EU in 2016, with employment across various sub-sectors and related industries.
• Global Leadership: The EU leads the world in both onshore and offshore wind energy, with 32% and 86% of global installed capacity respectively. Five of the top 10 global wind turbine manufacturers are based in the EU.
• Cost Reductions: The cost of wind energy has dropped significantly, with onshore wind being the cheapest new power source in many parts of Europe and offshore wind prices falling below cost reduction targets.
• Trade Balance: The EU has a positive trade balance in wind energy, with €7.8bn in exports and €5.4bn in imports in 2016. However, the share of EU content in global installations has decreased by 30% since 2011.
• Environmental Benefits: Wind energy reduced fossil fuel imports by 34,578 ktoe in 2016 and contributed to significant cost savings of €32bn from 2011 to 2016.
• Tax Contributions: The wind energy sector contributed €4.9bn in taxes to the EU economy in 2016, a 46% increase from 2011.

Key Information

Direct Impact on EU GDP

• In 2016, the wind energy sector directly contributed €22.3bn to the EU's GDP, up from €16.7bn in 2011.
• The growth rate of the wind industry's direct contribution was 33.2% in real terms over the period, outpacing the overall EU GDP growth.
• The direct contribution to GDP was more than 0.16% of the EU's total GDP in 2016, showing the sector's growing importance.

Indirect Contribution to EU GDP

• The wind energy sector indirectly contributed €13.8bn to the EU's GDP, with every €1,000 of wind energy revenue generating an additional €250 in economic activity.
• This indirect contribution spans multiple sectors, including metallurgy, electronic equipment, chemicals, and financial services.

Wind Energy Sub-sectors

• Developers: Wind developers accounted for 47% of the industry's total GDP contribution in 2016, up from 45% in 2011. Onshore developers contributed €8bn, while offshore developers contributed €2.4bn.
• Turbine Manufacturers: The contribution of turbine manufacturers to the EU's GDP increased from €2.8bn in 2011 to €6bn in 2016, representing 27% of the industry's GDP contribution in 2016.
• Component Manufacturers and Service Providers: These sub-sectors have seen a decline in their GDP impact due to the expansion of the global supply chain and increased international competition.
• Offshore Wind Substructures: This sub-sector is a key part of the offshore wind industry, contributing to the overall growth and GDP impact.

Policy Recommendations

• The EU should raise its 2030 renewable energy target to at least 35%.
• National Energy and Climate Action Plans should be binding and provide clarity for investors.
• The Renewable Energy Directive should mandate forward-looking support mechanisms and technology-specific tenders.
• The Emissions Trading System should be realigned to meet the Paris Climate Agreement.
• The EU should ensure research and innovation policies support the transition to a decarbonised energy system.
• Trade policies should address export barriers and local content requirements to enhance competitiveness.

Future Outlook

• The Central Scenario predicts a doubling of onshore wind capacity and a fivefold increase in offshore wind capacity by 2030, reaching 323 GW in total.
• This would generate 888 TWh of electricity, meeting 30% of the EU's power demand.
• The High Scenario, assuming more ambitious policy and market conditions, could see 397 GW of wind capacity installed by 2030, meeting 38% of the EU's power demand.
• The Low Scenario, with less ambitious targets, would result in 256 GW of capacity by 2030, meeting only 21.6% of the EU's power demand.

Conclusion

Wind energy has become a crucial part of the EU's economy, contributing significantly to GDP, employment, and environmental sustainability. However, to maintain and enhance its global leadership and economic benefits, the EU must implement supportive policies and address international competition and supply chain constraints. The report underscores the importance of a strong domestic market and continued investment in research and innovation to secure the long-term future of the wind energy sector in Europe.