20140515-Maybank_KERPL-APThailand_AP_TB_Set_to_jump_in_2Q14_11页_1mb

报告摘要

AP (Thailand) Summary

Core Content

AP (Thailand) is a real estate company with a current share price of THB5.30 and a target price of THB6.50, indicating a 23% upside. The company's market capitalization is USD467M, with an average daily trading volume of USD2M. The analyst recommends a BUY rating, with no change from previous recommendations.

Main Points

1Q14 Earnings: The company reported earnings of THB260m (EPS THB0.09), slightly below the forecast of THB284m and the Bloomberg consensus of THB277m. This was due to lower-than-expected gross margin and higher-than-expected SG&A/Sales. Property revenue was THB3.5b, down 58% QoQ but up 23% YoY.
Presales Expectations: Presales are expected to jump significantly in 2Q14, with the company launching three condos (THB7b) and six landed properties (THB7b), compared to only two landed properties in 1Q14 (THB1.7b). The analyst believes the strong presales in 2Q14 will be a key catalyst for the share price.
Backlog: As of 1Q14, the total backlog stood at THB22.3b, with THB11.1b expected to be recognized within the remaining three quarters of FY14. This accounts for 64% of the 2Q-4Q14 revenue forecast.
Presales Growth: YTD presales reached THB3.2b, which is 15% of the FY14 target. The analyst estimates that AP will achieve THB17b in presales for FY14, which is 12% YoY growth.
Valuation: The analyst maintains the BUY rating with a target price of THB6.50. The current valuation is considered the cheapest in the sector, with a core P/E of 6.5x and a P/BV of 1.0x. The company's core net profit for FY14 is estimated at THB2,166m.

Key Financials

Metric	FY12A	FY13A	FY14E	FY15E	FY16E
Revenue (THB m)	17,309.6	19,988.6	20,937.8	23,643.4	24,876.8
EBITDA (THB m)	3,106.3	2,988.1	3,149.9	3,528.0	3,743.0
Core Net Profit (THB m)	2,331.3	2,016.3	2,166.2	2,487.7	2,632.5
Core EPS (THB)	0.82	0.71	0.76	0.87	0.92
Core EPS Growth (%)	48.8	(13.9)	7.4	14.8	5.8
Net Dividend Yield (%)	4.7	4.7	4.3	4.9	5.2
ROAE (%)	20.1	15.2	14.7	15.2	14.4
ROAA (%)	7.9	6.3	6.2	6.8	6.8
EV/EBITDA (x)	11.5	9.1	9.2	8.2	7.6
Net Debt/Equity (%)	92.1	103.8	89.7	79.4	69.8

Key Takeaways

The analyst reiterates the BUY recommendation with a target price of THB6.50, citing the company's strong 2Q14 presales as a key catalyst.
1Q14 results were slightly below expectations, but the strong performance in landed property presales indicates a positive outlook.
The company is expected to achieve THB17b in presales for FY14, which is below the target but still acceptable given the current market conditions.
The company's valuation is the cheapest in the sector, with a core P/E of 6.5x and a P/BV of 1.0x.
The analyst is confident that the company will meet its revenue forecast, as 64% of the 2Q-4Q14 revenue is secured.

Peer Valuation

Stock	Mkt Cap (USD m)	Rating	Price (LC)	TP (LC)	Upside (%)	P/E (x)	P/B (x)	Dividend Yield (%)
Land & Houses	3,029.3	Hold	9.80	9.00	(8)	14.7	2.8	5.4
Pruksa Real Estate	1,515.2	Hold	22.10	21.90	(1)	8.5	7.2	3.5
Supalai	994.9	Buy	18.80	25.50	36	7.0	6.2	5.7
Quality Houses	900.4	Sell	3.18	2.30	(28)	10.9	7.9	4.6
L.P.N. Development	773.5	Sell	17.00	14.00	(18)	10.8	6.3	4.6
AP (Thailand)	467.3	Buy	5.30	6.50	23	7.0	6.1	4.3

Analyst Contact

Kittisorn Pruiipat, CFA, FRM
Email: kittisorn.p@maybank-ke.co.th
Phone: (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395

Research Offices

Thailand: Maria LAPIZ, Jesada TECHAHUSDIN, CFA, Kittisorn PRUITIPAT, CFA, FRM, Sittichai DUANGRATTANACHAYA, Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL, Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN, Padon VANNARAT, Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT, Suttatip PEERASUB, Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI, Woraphon WIROONSRI, Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG, Chatchai JINDARAT
Malaysia: Wong Chew Hann, CA, Desmond CH'NG, ACA, LIAW Thong Jung, ONG Chee Ting, CA, Mohsin AZIZ, CHAI Li Shin, LEE Cheng Hooi, TEE Sze Chiah
Singapore: NG Wee Siang, Gregory YAP, Wilson LIEW, ONG Kian Lin, Osbert TANG, Ricky WK NG, Simon QIAN, Steven ST CHAN, Warren LAL, William YANG
India: Jigar SHAH, Anubhav GUPTA, Urmil SHAH
Indonesia: Wilianto IE, Rahmi MARINA, Aurellia SETIABUDI, Anthony YUNUS, Isnaputra ISKANDAR, Pandu ANUGRAH, Janni ASMAN
Philippines: Luz LORENZO, Laura DY-LIACCO, Lovell SARREAL, Rommel RODRIGO, Katherine TAN
Vietnam: LE Hong Lien, Hua Hui, China

Conclusion

AP (Thailand) is a real estate company with a BUY rating, based on its strong 2Q14 presales and the secured backlog. The company's valuation is considered the cheapest in the sector, and its core P/E is 6.5x. The analyst believes the company will achieve THB17b in presales for FY14, which is 12% YoY growth. The company's financial performance has been mixed, with 1Q14 earnings slightly below expectations, but the strong landed property presales indicate a positive outlook for the remainder of the year.

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