2010-10-30-皮尤-GOP_Likely_to_Recapture_Control_of_House_38页_260kb

In the weeks leading up to the 2010 midterm elections, the Republican Party was projected to maintain a substantial lead over Democrats, positioning them to regain control of the House of Representatives. A comprehensive poll of 2,373 registered voters, including 1,809 considered "likely voters," indicated that Republicans garnered support from 48% compared to 42% for Democrats. This represented a continuation of a Republican engagement and support advantage observed in previous surveys, with a notable increase in high engagement levels among Republican voters.

Key findings included:

• Voter interest peaked at 59% among all registered voters, compared to 55% two weeks prior, reflecting heightened anticipation.
• Republicans demonstrated stronger and more enthusiastic involvement, with significantly higher reported attention to campaigns and influence among independent voters, particularly swaying them toward Republican candidates.
• Economic concerns were the most dominant issue for voters, cited by 38% as a key factor in their voting decision, followed by healthcare and deficits among other top concerns. National factors, including the current President's performance, were also significant considerations for about 35% of voters.
• Anti-incumbent sentiment was robust, with roughly 32% of voters disfavoring the reelection of most elected officials.
• Advertising and campaign outreach were consistently employed by both parties, with social media (email, text) and robocalls following increased utilization.
• Turnout, though influenced by increased early voting (despite variations by region and demographic), was predicted to be high, with the Republican base showing greater enthusiasm and voting likelihood.

This election cycle marked a continuation of a trend observed since 1994 where Republicans gained voter ground, particularly among independent voters and older citizens, consolidating momentum in the political landscape.