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报告摘要

Bangkok Airways (BA TB) Summary

Core Content

Bangkok Airways (BA) is a niche airline based in Samui, Thailand, with a strategic advantage due to its ownership of Samui, Sukhothai, and Trat airports. This gives BA a near-monopoly on certain routes and enhances its product offerings while reducing competition. The company is valued at THB22.30 with a target price of THB28.00, representing a 26% upside.

Main Points

Investment Rating: Buy
Target Price: THB28.00 (based on SOTPs)
Market Capitalization: THB46.8B (USD1.4B)
Average Daily Turnover: USD2M
Free Float: 34.3%
Shareholding Structure:
- Prasarttong-Osoth family: 62%
- Bangkok Bank: 5%
- Sahakol Estate: 3%
- Asset management companies: 2.5%

Key Strengths

Niche Positioning: BA does not directly compete with major full-service airlines or low-cost carriers, allowing it to focus on specific routes and markets.
Airport Ownership: BA owns and operates Samui, Sukhothai, and Trat airports, providing a competitive edge through preferred time and slot allocations.
Diversified Revenue Streams:
- Airline services: 65% of pretax profit
- Airport services: 17%
- Airport-related services: 36%
- Dividend income from BDMS: 14%
Dividend Income: Provides recurring earnings and reduces volatility in the airline business.
Growth Potential:
- Strong cyclical recovery driven by improving travel demand and falling fuel prices.
- Structural growth through capacity expansion and increased tourism to Samui Island.
- Three-year CAGR of 103% in core profit and 39% in EBITDA.

Financial Forecasts (FYE Dec)

Metric	FY13A	FY14A	FY15E	FY16E	FY17E
Revenue (THB m)	19,876.4	21,032.8	24,615.8	28,589.8	32,545.7
EBITDAR (THB m)	4,558.8	3,979.7	6,133.0	7,176.5	8,323.5
Core Net Profit (THB m)	887.9	347.7	2,075.6	2,383.5	2,898.7
Core EPS (THB)	0.56	0.17	0.99	1.14	1.38
Core EPS Growth (%)	-6.1	-70.5	496.9	14.8	21.6
Net DPS (THB)	0.57	0.00	0.54	0.62	0.76
Core P/E (x)	39.7	134.7	22.6	19.6	16.2
P/BV (x)	5.0	1.9	1.7	1.6	1.5
ROAE (%)	12.2	2.1	7.9	8.5	9.9

Growth Drivers

Samui Airport: Key strength with 90% of total seat capacity and 37% of BA's passenger revenues.
Fleet Expansion: Targeting 43 aircraft by FY18, with a focus on ATR 72-600 and A320 models.
Code-Sharing Agreements: Collaborating with 18 international airlines to expand international reach.
Tourism Recovery: Expected to grow at a 12% CAGR from 2014 to 2017, reaching 34.5M tourists by 2017F.
Airport Services: Growing alongside airline operations, with stable margins and potential for value unlocking.

Key Risks

Fuel Price Volatility: Fuel costs account for 30% of operating expenses. BA has hedged 50% of its FY15 fuel consumption at USD90/bbl.
Foreign Exchange Exposure: 45% of costs are in USD, exposing BA to THB depreciation.
Regulatory Constraints: Slot and frequency caps at Samui Airport could limit growth.
Competition: Prolonged intense competition may affect yields and profitability.
Natural Disasters and Disease Outbreaks: Could impact travel demand.

Conclusion

Bangkok Airways is a structural growth story with strong cyclical recovery and diversified revenue streams. Its ownership of key airports and code-sharing agreements provide a competitive edge. With strong EBITDA and profit growth and potential upside from new markets and airport-related services, BA is recommended as a Buy with a target price of THB28.00. However, it is sensitive to fuel price and FX volatility, which must be monitored closely.