布鲁金斯学会-年轻人的就业创造潜力、劳动技能需求和技能差距：塞内加尔案例研究（英文）-2021.4-41页_1mb

Summary of the Document: Employment Creation Potential, Labor Skills Requirements, and Skill Gaps for Young People in Senegal

Core Content

This document presents a case study on the employment creation potential of "industries without smokestacks" (IWOSS) in Senegal. These industries are identified as key drivers of economic growth and job creation, especially for the youth population. The study emphasizes the need for policy interventions to unlock this potential and address existing skill gaps.

Main Findings

• High youth unemployment: Senegal faces significant youth unemployment, with a rate of 7.82% in 2017, which is higher than that of older workers (6.6%).
• IWOSS potential: IWOSS, such as horticulture, tourism, and agro-processing, have shown higher growth potential and productivity compared to traditional sectors like manufacturing.
• Job creation projection: The study projects that by 2035, IWOSS could create up to 7,435,000 jobs, which is about two-thirds of the total projected 10,985,000 new jobs in the Senegalese economy.
• High-quality jobs: IWOSS are associated with higher productivity and better quality jobs, which require a higher level of skills.
• Structural transformation: Despite the country's political stability and economic growth, Senegal has not experienced significant structural transformation from agriculture to manufacturing. IWOSS may help bridge this gap.

Key Sectors

The following sectors are identified as key IWOSS in Senegal:

• Horticulture: Shows high growth in value-added and employment, with a 2.8 times increase in value-added between 1999 and 2019.
• Tourism: Has seen substantial growth in both value-added and employment, with an employment elasticity of 0.96.
• Agro-processing: Demonstrates strong potential for job creation and growth, with an employment elasticity of 0.88.

Constraints to IWOSS Growth

The study highlights several constraints that hinder the growth of IWOSS in Senegal:

1. Rigid labor regulations: Particularly affecting manufacturing and agro-processing.
2. Costly and cumbersome tax system: Deters investment and growth.
3. Inhibiting importing system: Limits access to necessary inputs and markets.
4. Weak judicial system and poor contract enforcement: Creates uncertainty for businesses.
5. Infrastructural deficiencies: Including electricity, transportation, and telecommunications.

Skills Gaps

Significant skills gaps exist in Senegal, particularly in the following areas:

• Hard skills: Required for technical and operational roles.
• Digital skills: Necessary for modern industries, especially ICT-based services.
• Soft skills: Important for management, customer service, and other service-oriented roles.

These gaps are most pronounced in IWOSS sectors, which have higher productivity and require more skilled labor. Addressing these gaps is essential for the effective absorption of the growing youth workforce into IWOSS.

Policy Implications

To fully realize the potential of IWOSS for employment and economic growth, the following policy actions are recommended:

• Sectoral reforms: Improve the regulatory environment to support IWOSS growth.
• Investment in business environment: Reduce the costs and complexities of doing business.
• Enhance skills training: Develop programs to address hard, digital, and soft skills gaps.
• Promote infrastructure development: Improve access to electricity, transportation, and telecommunications to support IWOSS expansion.

Conclusion

The study concludes that IWOSS have a significant potential to drive employment creation and economic growth in Senegal. However, this potential can only be realized through targeted policy interventions and investment in human capital and infrastructure. Addressing the constraints and skills gaps is crucial for the successful transformation of Senegal's economy and the creation of high-quality jobs for its youth population.

Key Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Employment patterns and salient features (2001-2017).
• Table 2: Changes in employment and employment share in IWOSS and non-IWOSS (2001-2017).
• Table 3: Ratio of sectoral labor productivity to average productivity (2000-2017).
• Table 4: Employment-output elasticity for Senegal.
• Table 5: Demographics of IWOSS and non-IWOSS workers (2001-2017).
• Table 6: Breakdown of sectoral employment by skill level (2017).
• Table 7: Projected GDP and labor demand (2017-2035).
• Table 8: Projected labor demand by skill level.
• Table 9-11: Sectoral and occupational skills gaps in IWOSS.
• Table 12-14: Occupational skills gap analysis for youth in IWOSS sectors.
• Table 15-17: Importance of skills required for youth occupations in IWOSS sectors.
• Table 18-26: Detailed analysis of skills required and deficits in IWOSS sectors.

Key Figures

• Figure 1: Real GDP per capita values and growth rates (1990-2019).
• Figure 2: Contribution to GDP by sector (2001-2017).
• Figure 3: Correlation between sectoral productivity and change in employment (2010-2017).
• Figure 4-8: Evolution of value-added and employment in tourism, agro-processing, horticulture, manufacturing, and other IWOSS sectors.
• Figure 9: Senegal's ease of doing business score.
• Figure 10: Most problematic factors for importing in Senegal.
• Figure 11: Value chain of the horticulture sub-sector in Senegal.
• Figure 12: Senegal's share of world exports of groundnuts and groundnut oil.
• Figure 13: Projection of the number of jobs (2017-2035).

Authors and Institutions

• Ahmadou Aly Mbaye: Vice-chancellor of Cheikh Anta Diop University.
• Fatou Gueye: Director of the Laboratoire d'Analyse des Politiques de Développement (LAPD).
• Assane Beye: Researcher at LAPD.
• Abdou Khadir Dia: Statistician at LAPD.
• Massaer Mbaye: Researcher at Dalberg Partners.
• Brookings Institution: Acknowledges support from Canada's IDRC and the Mastercard Foundation.