2009年-世界发展银行全球_Regional_Integration_Growth_and_Concentration_61页_684kb

Summary of "Regional Integration, Growth and Concentration"

Core Content

This background paper explores how different forms of regional integration influence economic growth and convergence within regions, with a focus on developing countries and Africa. It provides an overview of the performance of various regional trade agreements (RTAs), the implementation of common external tariffs (CETs), and the outcomes of convergence and divergence in income levels.

Main Regions Covered

The study examines several key regional integration groups:

• Africa:

  • EAC: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda (Burundi and Rwanda joined in 2007)
  • CEMAC: Cameroon, Gabon, Central African Republic, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Congo, Rep.
  • WAEMU: Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Togo
  • COMESA: Angola, Burundi, Comoros, Congo, Dem Rep, Djibouti, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Rwanda, Seychelles, Sudan, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe
  • SADC: Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Congo, Dem Rep, Madagascar, Seychelles
  • SACU: Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland

• Latin America:

  • MERCOSUR: Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay
  • CARICOM: Bahamas, Belize, Barbados, Jamaica, Guyana, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Grenada, Dominica, Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname, Haiti, Montserrat

• Asia:

  • ASEAN: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam
  • SAARC: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka

• Europe:

  • EU15: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom

Key Findings

Economic Performance of Regions

• Intra-regional trade: Varies significantly across regions. For example, EAC has 12.8%, while COMESA has 4.0%.
• GDP: The total GDP of regions ranges from 43.3bn USD (EAC) to 15300bn USD (NAFTA).
• Export/GDP: Ranges from 10.0% (NAFTA) to 33.9% (CARICOM).
• FDI stock/GDP: Varies from 6.4% (SAARC) to 86.5% (ASEAN).
• Convergence (σ convergence): Only EAC and ASEAN show convergence over the past decade, while others remain stable or divergent.

Common External Tariff (CET) Implementation

• The CET is crucial for customs unions but faces challenges in implementation and compensation.
• WAEMU has had a CET since 2000, leading to reduced duty dispersion and rationalised tariff structures.
• CEMAC implemented a CET in 1999, with four different tariff rates, but faces issues with implementation and revenue sharing.
• SACU introduced a new CET in 2002, with a financial revenue-sharing formula based on intra-SACU imports, though South Africa remains the only net contributor.
• EAC has a CET with three different rates for primary, intermediate, and final goods, but implementation challenges persist.

Convergence and Divergence

• Studies show mixed results on convergence and divergence within regions.
• SACU and SADC have shown convergence over certain periods, while ECOWAS and COMESA have not.
• Factors influencing convergence and divergence include:
  • Size of the region
  • Integration of monetary and harmonisation policies
  • Institutional frameworks
  • Labour mobility
  • Reaction to economic shocks
  • Competitive advantage
  • Homogeneity of the region

Policy Implications

• Regions with no convergence require additional development policies.
• Effective monitoring and enforcement mechanisms are essential.
• Creation of efficient institutions, such as a regional system of central banks, is recommended.
• Greater political commitment is needed to address structural rigidities.
• Low-income countries should consider joining north-south agreements.
• Stable governments and pro-poor policies are important for convergence.
• Co-ordination of economic policies across regions is necessary.

Future Research Steps

• A more systematic review of the conditions under which regional integration leads to convergence.
• Testing hypotheses on the impact of regional integration on growth and convergence.
• Focusing on cross-border infrastructure and new financial mechanisms.
• Examining the role of services, goods, investment liberalisation, and the types of goods/services liberalised.

Key Information

• Investment Index and Trade Index are used to measure the extent of investment and trade provisions in RTAs.
• The Investment Index ranges from -1 (most restrictive) to 3 (most complete).
• The Trade Index ranges from 0 (no provisions) to 3 (high MFN tariffs with low intra-regional tariffs).
• The study highlights that the effectiveness of regional integration depends on the type and level of provisions, as well as the economic conditions and policies of the member states.