深度-彼得森经济研究所-新冠疫情大流行期间韩国和美国的健康和经济结果（英文）-2021.6-24页_770kb

Summary of "21-15 Health and Economic Outcomes in South Korea and the United States During the COVID-19 Pandemic"

Core Content

This policy brief compares the health and economic outcomes of South Korea and the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights the differing approaches each country took in managing the crisis and the resulting impacts on public health and the economy.

Main Views

• Health Outcomes: South Korea managed the pandemic more effectively than the United States, with significantly lower death rates and controlled case numbers.
• Economic Impact: The United States experienced a more severe economic downturn compared to South Korea, with higher unemployment and a greater drop in GDP.
• Policy Influence: The effectiveness of public health measures and the willingness of the population to comply with restrictions played a critical role in the outcomes of both countries.
• Social and Demographic Impacts: Marginalized groups in the United States, such as Black, Hispanic, and Native American populations, suffered disproportionately from both the health and economic effects of the pandemic.
• Inflation Trends: Both countries experienced low inflation during the pandemic, but the U.S. saw a sharper rise, which raised concerns about its sustainability and policy response.

Key Information

Health Outcomes

• South Korea:

  • The country implemented effective public health measures including aggressive testing, contact tracing, quarantining, and graduated treatment of cases.
  • By early June 2021, the daily confirmed case rate was about 10-12 per million, and the estimated death rate was 45 per million.
  • The IHME estimates show that South Korea's peak daily death rate was about 3% of that in the U.S.
  • The total estimated deaths per million in South Korea by June 2021 were just 44, compared to 3,000 in the U.S.

• United States:

  • The U.S. experienced much higher case and death rates, with a peak of 750 confirmed cases per million and 2,812 deaths per million.
  • The country's initial response was less coordinated and more reliant on individual behavior, with limited use of contact tracing and stricter adherence to personal liberty.
  • Disproportionate impacts on minority groups were evident, with higher death rates and lower vaccination rates among Black, Hispanic, and Native American populations.

Economic Outcomes

• Real GDP:

  • Both countries saw a decline in real GDP during the early stages of the pandemic.
  • South Korea’s real GDP in 2020 was down 1%, the mildest contraction among G20 countries.
  • The U.S. real GDP in 2020 was down 3.5% compared to its pre-pandemic trend.

• Employment:

  • South Korea’s employment rebounded quickly, returning to pre-pandemic levels by May 2021.
  • The U.S. employment remained nearly 5% below its pre-pandemic level in May 2021.
  • The U.S. unemployment rate peaked at nearly 15% in April 2020, far exceeding South Korea’s peak of 4.3%.
  • The U.S. saw a sharp decline in labor force participation, while South Korea experienced a slight increase.

• Inflation:

  • Inflation remained low in both countries during the pandemic.
  • South Korea’s CPI inflation averaged below 1% between 2019 and 2021, with a slight spike in 2021 due to base effects.
  • The U.S. PCE inflation reached 3.6% in April 2021, the highest since 2008, but averaged 2% over the past 24 months.

Policy Choices

• South Korea:

  • Leveraged early experience with SARS and MERS to implement effective and timely public health measures.
  • Adopted a comprehensive contact tracing system using technology and data collection.
  • Maintained strict quarantine protocols and graduated treatment of cases.
  • Public compliance with these measures was high, enabling a more controlled spread of the virus.

• United States:

  • Took a more decentralized approach to pandemic response, with limited use of contact tracing and reliance on individual behavior.
  • Public resistance to measures like mask mandates and vaccine requirements reflected a strong cultural emphasis on personal liberty.
  • This approach led to a more severe outbreak and economic disruption.

Conclusion

The pandemic revealed stark differences in how South Korea and the United States managed public health and economic challenges. South Korea’s proactive and comprehensive public health policies, combined with public cooperation, led to better health outcomes and a more resilient economic recovery. In contrast, the U.S. faced greater health and economic impacts due to a less coordinated response and a cultural resistance to restrictive measures. The experience underscores the importance of public health preparedness and the role of social compliance in mitigating the effects of a global crisis.