2023-12-31-世界银行-约旦经济监测_2023年秋季-建立成功_打破障碍_释放约旦妇女的经济力量_54页_1mb

Jordan Economic Monitor: Summary

Key Findings

1 ➜ Economic Growth:
Jordan’s real GDP growth averaged 2.2% over the past decade (2012–2022). Growth accelerated to 2.7% in the first half of 2023, driven by contributions from the services, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors.

2. ➜ Inflation:
   Annual headline inflation decelerated significantly in 2023. By October 2023, the inflation rate was 1.4%, down from 5.4% in September 2022. This was supported by favorable base effects, low monthly inflation, and disinflationary pressures from lower fuel and transportation prices.

3. ➜ Fiscal Position:
   The Central Government deficit narrowed from 5.6% of GDP in 2022 to 5.2% in 2023. Fiscal consolidation was supported by increased revenues and lower subsidy spending. Gross government and guaranteed debt rose to 111.4% of GDP in 2022, up from 108.8% the previous year.

4. ➜ External Sector:
   The current account deficit narrowed to 7.7% of GDP in 2022, aided by higher travel receipts. In the first half of 2023, the deficit decreased further to 3.3% of GDP. Import growth slowed, while export growth remained weak.

5. ➜ Labor Market:
   Labor force participation declined to 33.0% in Q2–2023, down from 39.2% in 2017. Female labor participation (FLFP) remains among the lowest globally (13.8% in Q2–2023), with many women withdrawing upon marriage. Employment rates have also declined, though inflation remains contained.

6. ➜ Women’s Economic Participation:
   Women face barriers including caregiving responsibilities, limited access to childcare, and inadequate public transportation. Enhancing childcare services and public transport access is critical for boosting FLFP. Global evidence shows policies like childcare vouchers and employer-supported childcare significantly increase women’s workforce participation.

7. ➜ Challenges and Risks:
   Economic growth is constrained by structural issues like low productivity, high informality, and social norms. High debt burdens limit fiscal space, while regional conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, could disrupt tourism and energy markets, affecting growth and stability.

Recommendations

1. Strengthen policies to support women’s economic participation, including childcare services and gender-responsive public transportation.
2. Enhance fiscal consolidation through revenue mobilization and efficient expenditure management.
3. Diversify economic growth channels, reducing reliance on tourism.
4. Promote structural reforms to improve labor productivity and job creation.