2018年-普华永道全球_Industrial_mobility_How_autonomous_vehicles_can_change_manufacturing_30页_10mb

Summary of "Industrial Mobility" Report (February 2018)

Core Content

This report explores the emerging field of industrial mobility, focusing on the adoption and impact of autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles in manufacturing and the broader supply chain. It highlights the current state of adoption, the drivers and barriers for implementation, and the implications of these technologies on the future of transportation.

Main Points

1. Adoption Trends in Industrial Mobility

• Current Adoption: Only 9% of US manufacturers have adopted semi-autonomous or autonomous mobility solutions within their operations.
• Future Intentions: An additional 11% plan to adopt such technologies within the next three years.
• Cost Savings: Few manufacturers have seen cost savings from adopting these technologies, with only 20% reporting at least 10% annual cost reduction.
• Workforce Impact: There is a growing need for a shift in the workforce from traditional drivers to logistics technicians who can manage autonomous systems.

2. Drivers for Adoption

• Cost Advantage: 86% of manufacturers cite cost savings as the primary trigger for adopting industrial mobility technologies.
• Customer and Supply Chain Expectations: 47% of manufacturers believe customer and supply chain demands will drive adoption.
• Safety Improvements: 38% of manufacturers consider increased safety as a key factor.

3. Barriers to Adoption

• Cost: 60% of manufacturers identify cost as a major barrier.
• Immature Technology: 42% of respondents cite this as a challenge.
• Safety Concerns: 32% of manufacturers express safety issues as a concern.
• Lack of Talent: 32% of manufacturers mention the lack of skilled personnel as a barrier.

4. Autonomous Trucking Potential

• Cost Savings: 90% of manufacturers believe fully autonomous trucks could save up to 25% of total trucking costs once mainstreamed.
• Adoption Timeline: 65% of manufacturers expect self-driving trucks to be mainstreamed within the next 10 years.
• Technological Maturity: The technology for autonomous long-haul trucks is expected to mature in the next five to ten years, but full autonomy may not be widespread for 10–20 years due to safety and workforce concerns.

5. Investment in Industrial Mobility

• Non-Auto Mobility Investment: From 2012 to 2017, $6.8 billion was invested in mobility start-ups, with $4.2 billion going to non-auto mobility (e.g., drones, autonomous trucks, maritime systems) compared to $2.6 billion for auto-focused tech.
• Growth in Non-Auto Tech: The investment in non-auto mobility has surged since 2015, with most of the growth concentrated in the last two years.

6. Technologies and Innovations

• Mobile Robots: The market for mobile robots is expected to grow significantly, with global shipments projected to reach $18.7 billion by 2021.
• Autonomous Vehicles in Private Spaces: Companies are already deploying autonomous vehicles in private facilities such as mines and warehouses, with examples including Seegrid's autonomous forklifts and DHL's Parcel Robot.
• Drones: Drones are being used for surveillance and transport in manufacturing, especially in large facilities. Their use is not regulated by the FAA on private property, allowing for more experimentation.

7. Regulatory and Infrastructure Challenges

• State Regulations: Most US states have implemented their own regulations for testing autonomous vehicles, leading to a patchwork of policies.
• Federal Legislation: The SELF DRIVE Act was passed by the House in 2017, increasing the number of self-driving cars allowed on public roads. The AV START Act is still pending in the Senate.
• Infrastructure Needs: As vehicles become more autonomous, smart infrastructure (e.g., vehicle-to-infrastructure communication) will be essential to support the technology.

8. Future Outlook

• Incremental Adoption: The adoption of autonomous systems is expected to be incremental, with certain applications (e.g., in private spaces) likely to advance faster than others.
• Platooning Technology: This technology, allowing trucks to travel in coordinated convoys, is already being tested and could improve fuel efficiency by up to 10%.
• Learning and Adaptation: Autonomous vehicles may eventually learn from each other through shared data, potentially surpassing human driving knowledge.

Key Information

• Total US freight transportation: 16 billion tons annually.
• Major freight modes: Trucks, rail, waterways, pipelines, and air cargo.
• Platooning: A technology that allows multiple trucks to communicate and travel in a convoy, improving fuel efficiency and safety.
• Robotics Growth: The market for automated materials handling equipment is growing rapidly, with the global market expected to reach $48.3 billion by 2023.
• Workforce Shift: As automation increases, the demand for logistics technicians is expected to rise, replacing traditional roles such as drivers and operators.

Conclusion

Industrial mobility is poised to revolutionize the manufacturing and logistics sectors by improving efficiency, safety, and cost-effectiveness. While the adoption of autonomous and semi-autonomous technologies is still in its early stages, the potential for significant cost savings and operational improvements is clear. The development of smart infrastructure and federal regulations will be crucial in enabling widespread deployment. As the technology matures, the workforce will need to adapt to new roles, and the integration of autonomous systems into the supply chain will become increasingly common.