2018年-WEF世界经济论坛_Reshaping_Urban_Mobility_with_Autonomous_Vehicles_Lessons_from_the_City_of_Boston_36页_4mb

Summary of "Reshaping Urban Mobility with Autonomous Vehicles" by the World Economic Forum and Boston Consulting Group

Core Content

This report outlines a three-year collaboration between the World Economic Forum and The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) to explore the potential of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in reshaping urban mobility. The study focuses on Boston as a testbed for AV integration, analyzing consumer behavior, traffic impacts, and policy implications.

Main Findings

Consumer Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles

• Global Interest: A 2015 survey of 5,500 consumers in 27 cities showed strong global interest in AVs, with 60% indicating they would ride in an AV.
• Key Benefits: Consumers valued AVs primarily for eliminating the need to find parking, followed by the ability to multitask during travel and switching to self-driving mode in traffic.
• Regional Variations: Acceptance of AVs varied across countries, with 85% in India, 75% in China, and 36% in Japan.
• Demographics: Age was a more significant driver of AV adoption than income. Younger generations (Gen X and Y) were more likely to adopt AVs due to their familiarity with ride-sharing services.
• Trip Length: Shorter trips correlated with higher AV adoption rates, as AVs are more cost-competitive and convenient for these scenarios.

Impact on Traffic and Urban Planning

• Traffic Simulation: A sophisticated traffic model showed that AVs could reduce the number of vehicles on the road by 15% and increase total miles travelled by 16%, but only improve average travel time by 4%.
• Congestion Risk: AVs could worsen congestion in downtown areas, where they are used as substitutes for short public transport trips. Travel time in downtown Boston is projected to increase by 5.5%.
• Suburban Impact: In suburban areas, AVs are more likely to replace personal car usage, reducing travel time by 12.1%.
• Parking Reduction: The city could reduce its parking demand by 50% with AV adoption, prompting a rethinking of urban infrastructure design.

Scaling AV Pilots in Boston

• Testing Milestones: By the end of 2016, no AV testing was taking place in Boston. By 2017, nuTonomy completed the first autonomous mile, and Lyft and nuTonomy began passenger testing. By the end of 2017, over 1,500 autonomous miles were logged.
• Collaborative Model: The success of AV testing in Boston was due to collaborative leadership involving the mayor, local government, and private sector operators. This model can be replicated in other cities.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Occupancy-Based Pricing: Implementing such schemes could discourage single-occupancy rides and improve citywide travel times by 15%.
• Integrated Mobility Platforms: Cities should develop strategies for integrated mobility platforms that include both AVs and traditional transport modes.
• Proactive Planning: Policymakers must anticipate the challenges and opportunities AVs bring and use the right policy levers to manage the transition.

Integration into the Mobility Ecosystem

• Mobility-on-Demand (MoD): Expected to account for 30% of all trips in Greater Boston and 40% within city limits by 2030.
• Transport Modes: The conjoint analysis identified several AV types, including autonomous taxis, shared AVs, and autonomous minibuses, and their respective impacts on travel behavior.
• Role of Autonomous Minibuses: These vehicles, sometimes referred to as robo-shuttles, are likely to play a critical role in urban mobility, filling the gap between small vehicles and large public transport.

Conclusion and Outlook

• AV Potential: AVs have the potential to transform urban mobility significantly, offering safety, convenience, and accessibility.
• Regulatory Framework: A regulatory and governance framework is essential to ensure AVs contribute positively to society.
• Global Relevance: With over 100 AV pilots worldwide, Boston's experience provides valuable insights for other cities seeking to integrate AVs into their mobility ecosystems.

Scalability and Transferability

• Applicability: Many findings from the study are scalable and transferable to other cities, offering a blueprint for AV integration.
• Future Goals: The World Economic Forum aims to continue its work on AVs through its Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution in San Francisco, seeking further partnerships to maximize societal and user benefits.

Key Figures and Data

• AV Adoption Rates:
  • South Boston/Seaport had the highest adoption rate at 55%.
  • Dorchester had the lowest at 26%.
• Modal Mix Shift:
  • Mobility-on-demand will account for 30% of all trips in Greater Boston.
  • 40% of trips within city limits will be mobility-on-demand.
• Cost Competitiveness:
  • AVs are more cost-effective for short trips, especially when compared to traditional mass transit.
  • Shared AVs can be $0.35 per mile, which is more competitive than traditional taxis.

Methodology

• Conjoint Analysis: A survey of 2,400 Bostonians was used to assess transport mode preferences under various scenarios.
• Scenarios Considered:
  • Trip reason (work or leisure)
  • Group context (alone, with friends, or as a family)
  • Weather (clear or inclement)
  • Time of day (daytime or night-time)
• Transport Modes Evaluated:
  • Bus/subway
  • Commuter rail
  • Taxi/ride-hailing
  • Personal vehicle
  • Autonomous personal vehicle
  • Autonomous taxi
  • Autonomous shared taxi
  • Autonomous minibus

Acknowledgements

The report is the result of collaboration between the World Economic Forum, BCG, and the City of Boston. It reflects the insights of the Autonomous and Urban Mobility Working Group, which includes executives from various industries and cities. The project was supported by the Forum's System Initiative on Shaping the Future of Mobility and has had a measurable impact on Boston's mobility strategy.