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Economic Contributions from Industrial Mining in Madagascar

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the economic contributions from industrial mining in Madagascar, commissioned by the World Bank and conducted by the Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining (CSRM) at the University of Queensland. The research focuses on large-scale mining, excluding artisanal and small-scale mining, exploration, and quarrying. It aims to assess the fiscal and non-fiscal contributions of the mining sector, as well as its potential macroeconomic and social impacts.

Main Objectives

• To evaluate the fiscal and non-fiscal contributions of large-scale mining in Madagascar.
• To provide recommendations on how to maximize the benefits and manage the challenges of mining.
• To support stakeholders in preparing for the next generation of mining investment.

Key Findings

Fiscal Contributions

• Industrial mining is expected to account for between 4 and 14 percent of GDP by 2025.
• It could represent up to 10 percent of the country's fiscal income.
• Royalties remain the principal source of revenue in the medium term.
• Corporate tax could significantly affect mining revenues once new projects become profitable.
• State participation is not expected to generate substantial dividends.

Macroeconomic Impact

• Mining could dominate Madagascar's exports by 2025.
• The sector can provide a timely economic boost during crises.
• The potential for long-term macroeconomic benefits is higher with modest investments in productive operations.

Local Procurement and Economic Linkages

• Local procurement could increase from US$ 200–300 million to nearly US$ 1 billion under the most favorable scenario.
• Mining projects like QMM and Ambatovy have catalyzed the development of infrastructure such as ports, roads, and social services.
• Local content and procurement should be prioritized in policies and regulations to enhance economic linkages.

Employment

• Currently, over 12,500 people are directly employed by mining companies in Madagascar, representing 2% of national employment.
• Under the most optimistic scenario, the potential final employment effect (direct, indirect, and linked) could reach over 65,000 people.
• Mining is not a labor-intensive sector, but it has the potential to significantly increase employment if more projects are developed.

Key Scenarios

• Scenario 1: Includes existing projects (Ambatovy, QMM, and Kraoma).
• Scenario 2: Adds another ilmenite mine (Toliara Sands) and a coal mine (Sakoa Region).
• Scenario 3: Includes Scenario 2 plus an iron-ore mine (Soalala Project).

Recommendations

• Fiscal Policy: Review current mining fiscal regimes to ensure they are suitable for the next generation of investment. Any changes should be based on detailed analysis and modeling, while respecting stability clauses to maintain investor confidence.
• Local Content and Procurement: Government should prioritize local content and procurement in policies and regulations. This includes encouraging and rewarding best practices in multi-stakeholder planning and training.
• Infrastructure Development: The development of complementary infrastructure (ports, roads, social services) should be optimized through collaboration between government, private sector, and civil society.
• Governance and Transparency: Strengthen governance and ensure transparency to prevent corruption, illicit trade, and environmental degradation. Effective oversight is crucial for sustainable development.
• Stakeholder Engagement: Encourage dialogue between the Ministry of Mines, Chamber of Mines, GIZ, and other stakeholders to align policies and practices with the goals of economic and social development.

Economic Models and Assumptions

• A simplified cash-flow model was developed for each mining project based on empirical data, production forecasts, market conditions, and fiscal regime analysis.
• The model includes projections of national costs, salaries, taxation, and royalties.
• Sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of variations in production and commodity prices.
• The research acknowledges that the results are mostly illustrative due to the number of assumptions involved.

Conclusion

The research highlights the importance of integrating mining into the local and national economy through local procurement, employment, and infrastructure development. While fiscal revenues remain a key concern, the potential for non-fiscal contributions is significant. The report emphasizes the need for a balanced approach that leverages the positive aspects of mining while managing its potential negative impacts. Future mining developments depend on international market conditions, commodity prices, and the success of (pre)feasibility studies. The research underscores the necessity of institutional capacity building and stakeholder collaboration to ensure sustainable and equitable development from industrial mining.

Key Information

• Funding: South African Trust Fund for Sub-Saharan African Energy, Transport and Extractive Industries (SAFETE).
• Partners: World Bank, Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, Chamber of Mines, GIZ, and CSRM.
• Scope: Excludes artisanal and small-scale mining, exploration, and quarrying.
• Methodology: Field research, data analysis, economic modeling, case studies, and stakeholder interviews.
• Technical Annex: Available online, containing detailed assumptions and justifications for the model.

Figures and Tables

• Graph 1: Imports of pearls, precious metals, and stones from Madagascar (US$ Million).
• Graph 2: Contribution of large-scale mining to GDP sensitivity to nickel price.
• Graph 3: GDP by sector and forecast mining contribution in 2025 (US$ Million).
• Graph 4: GDP by sector and mining contribution (US$ Million; Scenario 3).
• Graph 5: Total exports and mining exports (US$ Million - current - FOB).
• Graph 6: Foreign Investment in Madagascar (US$ Million).
• Graph 8: Total royalties from large-scale mining (US$ Million).
• Graph 9: Estimated Total Operating Cost (US$ Million).
• Graph 10: Total direct, indirect, and linked employment by year (mining at full capacity).
• Table 1: Mining scenarios in Madagascar based on phases of development (in `000 tonnes).
• Table 2: Total monetary flows of large-scale mining at full capacity (US$ Million).
• Table 3: Annual exports of large-scale mining at full capacity (US$ Million - current - FOB).
• Table 4: Total fiscal income from large-scale mining (US$ Million).
• Table 5: Complementary infrastructure examples: Ambatovy.
• Table 6: Complementary infrastructure examples: QMM.
• Table 7: Direct employment by scenario (at full capacity).

Summary

The report concludes that while industrial mining has the potential to significantly boost Madagascar's economy, it requires careful governance, stakeholder engagement, and a focus on local content and sustainable development. The findings and recommendations aim to guide the country in maximizing the benefits of mining while addressing its challenges.