2014年-世界发展银行全球_Rice_in_the_Shadow_of_Skyscrapers___Policy_Choices_in_a_Dynamic_East_and_Southeast_Asian_Setting_152页_9mb

Summary of "Rice in the Shadow of Skyscrapers"

Core Content

This document is a compendium of policy notes that analyze the evolving role of rice in East and Southeast Asia, focusing on policy choices, economic implications, and environmental considerations. It is a collaborative effort by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Bank (WB), and the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), aimed at supporting informed decision-making on rice-related policies and food security strategies.

The document highlights the significant role of rice in the region, both as a staple food and a key component of rural livelihoods, while also noting the increasing shift towards urban and industrial development. As a result, rice is becoming less central to economic growth and more focused on food security, income improvement, and environmental sustainability.

Main Themes and Objectives

1. Changing Role of Rice in Asia

• Rice as a Staple: Rice is a major food source, contributing significantly to food calories and expenditures in the region.
• Economic Shift: Manufacturing, construction, and services are growing rapidly, overshadowing rice in the economic landscape.
• Demographic Changes: Urbanization and rising incomes are leading to a decline in per capita rice consumption, especially in China and India.
• Environmental Concerns: Increasing emphasis on reducing the environmental footprint of rice production and agro-industry.

2. Policy Instruments and Approaches

• The document outlines various policy instruments used to manage rice production, trade, and food security, including:

  • Land-use planning and restrictions
  • Agricultural extension and training services
  • Input subsidies (or taxes)
  • Irrigation and drainage services
  • Public grain reserves
  • Trade facilitation and promotion
  • Export bans or quantitative restrictions
  • Government-to-government trade contracts
  • Concessional finance to farmers
  • Minimum prices or administrative price support
  • Rice fortification initiatives
  • Concessional credit lines for millers
  • State-owned enterprise milling/trading

• These instruments are used to balance food security, farmer prosperity, and trade objectives, while addressing the interests of various stakeholders.

3. Rice Demand and Supply Outlook

• Demand Trends:

  • Per capita rice consumption is expected to decline globally, especially in Asia, due to urbanization and income growth.
  • By 2030, global per capita consumption is projected to be around 55 kg/year, and by 2050, it ranges between 39 and 56 kg/year.
  • Timmer et al. (2010) project a decline of about 4 kg per capita between 2030 and 2050, while Rejesus et al. (2012) suggest no decline in consumption.

• Supply Trends:

  • Global rice yield growth is expected to slow significantly, from 1.7% per year (1961–2007) to 0.8% per year (2005/07–2050).
  • Developing countries are expected to see a similar slowdown, from 2.1% to 0.9%.
  • The slowdown is expected to be more pronounced for cereals than non-cereals, with paddy yields growing at about one-third the rate of the past.

• Climate Change Impact:

  • The Timmer et al. study adjusts yield projections to account for climate change effects, leading to a slight decrease in total rice demand by 2050.

4. Regional Cooperation and Trade Policy

• The document emphasizes the importance of regional cooperation, such as the ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve (APTERR), for stabilizing rice prices and ensuring food security.
• It discusses the benefits and challenges of trade policies, including export bans, quantitative restrictions, and the use of public grain reserves.

5. Policy Learning and Reform

• The compendium aims to support policymakers by synthesizing recent research and providing insights into alternative policy approaches.
• It encourages learning from other countries' experiences and suggests various reform, technical, and programmatic options to improve rice policies.

Key Information

• Audience: Policymakers, their advisers, officials dealing with food security and rural development, and development partners involved in agricultural systems and value chains.
• Approach: The document does not provide prescriptions but rather outlines various policy options and their potential impacts.
• Structure: The series consists of 18 policy notes, grouped into two main sections:
  • Production-Related Themes: Including land use, irrigation, environmental risks, and post-harvest losses.
  • Market and Trade Themes: Including trade policy, consumer welfare, and regional cooperation.

Conclusion

"Rice in the Shadow of Skyscrapers" provides a comprehensive overview of the evolving dynamics of rice in East and Southeast Asia. It highlights the need for adaptive policies that address the changing socio-economic and environmental landscape while ensuring food security and supporting rice producers. The compendium serves as a valuable resource for policymakers seeking to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of rice-related policies and programs.