20171017-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_31页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content

This document provides a summary of regional market insights and corporate highlights for the week of 17 October 2017, focusing on China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes economic data, corporate performance updates, key indices, top picks, and analyst views.

Main Points

China

Inflation:
- PPI (Producer Price Index) rose to 6.9% yoy in September 2017, beating expectations, driven by strong commodity prices.
- CPI (Consumer Price Index) dropped to 1.6% yoy, with core CPI remaining stable at 2.3% yoy.
- Food prices fell by 1.4% yoy, and pork prices continued to decline, dragging down CPI.
- Service sectors supported core inflation, with healthcare and travel services seeing significant price increases.
Corporate Highlights:
- China Singyes Solar Technologies (750 HK):
  - Maintained HOLD with a target price of HK$2.50.
  - Cash flows remain robust, but EPC earnings and interest expenses are a concern.
  - PPI for steel and aluminium processing increased to 31.5% yoy and 20.2% yoy, respectively.
  - Lower 2018-19F earnings due to higher interest expenses and restructured earnings recognition.
  - Net margin is expected to decline in 2017 but improve in subsequent years.
- Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (6869 HK):
  - Maintained BUY with a target price of HK$33.70.
  - Optimistic on China demand for optical fibre and cable, driven by China Mobile and 5G rollout.
  - 5G is expected to drive higher demand than 4G due to the need for more small cells.
  - Management expects China Unicom to focus on 5G rollout post-restructuring.

Hong Kong

Asian Gems Corporate Highlights:
- IGG Inc (799 HK):
  - BUY recommendation with a target price of HK$14.50.
  - On track for growth as expected.

Indonesia

Asian Gems Corporate Highlights:
- Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ):
  - BUY recommendation with a target price of Rp2,150.
  - On track to meet 2017 pre-sales target and has acquired an office building.

Malaysia

Genting Plantations (GENP MK):
- HOLD recommendation with a target price of RM9.95.
- Neutral on long-term outlook due to potential CPO price weakness and lower production in Malaysia.

Singapore

M1 (M1 SP):
- BUY recommendation with a target price of S$1.95.
- Steady growth from post-paid mobile and fixed services in 3Q17.
Thai Beverage (THBEV SP):
- BUY recommendation with a target price of S$1.09.
- Positioning for Vision 2020 with the Grand Royal acquisition.

Thailand

Property Sector:
- Expect strong 3Q17 presales and more optimistic earnings outlook.

Key Indices

The DJIA, S&P 500, FTSE 100, AS30, CSI 300, FSSTI, HSCEI, HSI, JCI, KLCI, Nikkei 225, SET, and TWSE are listed with their previous close, 1-day, 1-week, 1-month, and YTD percentage changes.
Brent Crude and CPO (Crude Palm Oil) are also included with their price data and changes.

Key Information

Top Picks

BUY:
- CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK): Target price HK$15.24, potential upside +16.5%.
- Waskila Karya (WSKT J): Target price 3,000.00, potential upside +47.1%.
- Ekovest (EKO MK): Target price 1.45, potential upside +26.1%.
- Gabungan AQRS (AQRS MK): Target price 2.22, potential upside +22.7%.
- OCBC (OCBC SP): Target price 13.38, potential upside +16.6%.
- Siam Cement (SCC TB): Target price 600.00, potential upside +20.5%.
SELL:
- Great Wall Motor (2333 HK): Target price 5.50, potential downside -50.0%.
- UMW Holdings (UMWH MK): Target price 4.80, potential downside -14.9%.

Key Assumptions

GDP growth expectations for various regions:
- US: 1.6% (2016), 2.5% (2017F), 2.5% (2018F)
- Euro Zone: 1.7% (2016), 1.8% (2017F), 1.6% (2018F)
- Japan: 1.0% (2016), 0.9% (2017F), 1.2% (2018F)
- Singapore: 2.0% (2016), 2.4% (2017F), 2.5% (2018F)
- Malaysia: 4.2% (2016), 5.0% (2017F), 4.9% (2018F)
- Thailand: 3.2% (2016), 3.3% (2017F), 3.3% (2018F)
- Indonesia: 5.0% (2016), 5.2% (2017F), 5.5% (2018F)
- Hong Kong: 1.9% (2016), 2.0% (2017F), 2.0% (2018F)
- China: 6.7% (2016), 6.6% (2017F), 6.3% (2018F)
Brent Crude:
- Average price: 45 US$/bbl (2016), 52 US$/bbl (2017F), 55 US$/bbl (2018F)
CPO:
- Price: 2,653 RM/mt (2016), 2,600 RM/mt (2017F), 2,400 RM/mt (2018F)

Corporate Events

Analyst Presentation on Indonesia Consumer Piece and Strategy: Hong Kong, 17–18 Oct 2017
Luncheon with O-Net Technologies: Hong Kong, 17 Oct 2017
Fintech Seminar 2017: Kuala Lumpur, 19 Oct 2017
Roadshow with PT Bumi Serpong Damai: Taipei, 24–25 Oct 2017
Roadshow with Hong Leong Bank: Hong Kong, 26–27 Oct 2017
Roadshow with Gabungan AQRS: Singapore, 31 Oct–1 Nov 2017
Luncheon with Globetronics Technology: Malaysia, 1 Nov 2017
UOB Kay Hian Annual Regional Strategy Conference: Kuala Lumpur, 13 Nov 2017