2000-02-16-皮尤-McCain_Appeals_To_Pivotal_Older_Voters_and_Independents_41页_401kb

报告摘要

2000年美国总统选举调查摘要

McCain's Strength：McCain appeals to older voters (age 50+), political independents, and draft-era men, leading Gore by 49% to 41% in a general-election ballot test. He gains support from key groups whose loyalties swing, but trails Bush in the Republican nomination. Gender and generational gaps affect voting patterns: older voters prefer McCain, younger voters (under 50) lean toward Bush or Gore depending on sex. McCain's strength among independents (52% vs. Gore) contrasts with Bush's modest lead.
Gore's Gains：Gore draws into a statistical dead heat with Bush, largely due to support from core Democrats, women over 50, and minority groups. He improves support from Democrats, non-whites, and women over 50 since December 1999, aided by his association with Clinton. In the Democratic primary, Gore maintains a 65% to 28% lead over Bradley, with supporters emphasizing experience over issues. Gender differences are significant: women over 50 strongly back Gore.
Gender and Generational Trends：Gender gap favors Gore among older voters and Bush among men under 50, while in congressional races, men prefer Republicans and women Democrats. Generational split: under 50 voters favor Bush, over 50 prefer McCain or Gore. McCain leads unexpectedly among educated voters and independents.
Media and Attention：Campaign news focus increases, with 26% paying close attention compared to 19% in January. The Elian Gonzalez rescue incident tops news interest (37% very closely following). Internet users are highly engaged, but opposition to taxing Internet purchases is strong, with 52% saying no. Trust in CNN increases slightly.
Congressional Dynamics：Democrats hold a slight lead (47% vs. 44%) in congressional control, with gender gap widening. Republicans dominate among affluent and male voters, while Democrats gain among minorities and low-income groups.
Overall Key Insights：The survey highlights decisive roles for gender and generation in voting behavior, with McCain and Gore's performances shaped by party loyalty shifts. Budget surplus preferences favor domestic spending, and presidential campaign attention surpasses primary coverage.